Wednesday, February 3, 2010

White House responds to Iran's 'offer'...

POLITICO:

The White House's Bill Burton responded to questions on Iran at the press briefing today:

Q: On Iran, Iran said today that they had fired a rocket capable of launching a satellite. What is the administration's level of concern at whether that technology, that capability could be devoted towards military use, even a nuclear missile program?

MR. BURTON: Obviously we've seen those reports and we're still checking them out to make sure that they're accurate. A launch like that is obviously a provocative act. But the President believes that it's not too late for Iran to do the right thing, come to the table with the international community, and live up to its international obligations.

Q Iranian President Ahmadinejad said yesterday that Iran was in fact ready to go ahead with a deal that it had reached earlier but yet reneged on to allow its nuclear fuel to be processed abroad. Does the President see that as a serious offer or overture, and would the U.S. take advantage of that in some way? Or do they see it as being a way of diverting attention or diverting efforts towards a new round of sanctions?

MR. BURTON: Well, some of these reports have been pretty fragmentary in the sense that we haven’t seen the whole transcript and everything that he has said. But if those comments indicate some sort of change in position for Iran, then President Ahmadinejad should let the IAEA know.

Reading through some of the English language Iranian press day after reports on Ahmadinejad's interview, a couple items stand out:

This piece that shows that Ahmadinejad's interview was advertised as a major live address to the nation that was given some pre-billing. Seems unlikely it would have been set up that way without the Supreme Leader's blessing, a Reuters analysis posits. (An Iran expert also suggested that Iran's rocket launch today is the sort of "show of strength" that might happen before Iran would offer a deal, to try to project strength so they don't look weak.)

Some interesting discussion here by Iran's atomic energy chief Salehi about conversations Iran having on Tehran Research Reactor with various countries. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said today Iranians had spoken in Davos last weekend with French and Brazilian officials about the TRR deal and had some things clarified. Salehi suggests there have also been discussions with a nation in Asia, by which China's Xinhua news agency seemed to think he meant Japan (ahem).

Key western power were quite united in their messaging last night and today that if Iran has a serious offer they should contact the IAEA.

The P5+1 directors are expected to confer by phone in the next couple days, including on the sanctions issue, which is expected to move ahead quickly, a European diplomat said. They need nine votes in the Security Council to pass a resolution, he expected the P5 (including China) to vote for an agreed on resolution, plus Japan and Austria (yes); Brazil was a likely/maybe, Turkey was a complex maybe, Vietnam a maybe, Lebanon a no. More on that from Burton briefing below the jump:

Q Bill, tell me how things are going with respect to Iran and pursuing these sanctions against them?

MR. BURTON: Well, I would just say that Iran needs to live up to its obligations to the international community. But as a result of some of our policies, we have seen successes. We've seen that the international community is more united than it ever has been before in this region, Iran is more isolated from the international community than it has been before, and the nation of Iran is divided internally about what the best way forward is. So our view is that the door is still open. There is an offer on the table, and there's still time for Iran to do the right thing. But, obviously, they have not just yet. But if they don't, we'll apply all pressure that we can to make sure that they do.

Q How much more time, though? You said December 31st was the time. And also, how much leverage do you really have over China, given the tensions that have erupted in the last week or two?

MR. BURTON: Well, on time frame -- I don't have a new time frame for you necessarily, but I will say that obviously this is an issue that's deeply important to the President, and we do think that we've had an impact on. As it relates to China, the President's view is that our relationship with them is mature enough that on issues where we disagree, we can disagree but work together to come to agreement. And we can also work with them on issues of mutual concern, like nuclear non-proliferation, the global economy, climate change and things like that.

Q I'm talking about sanctions on Iran --

MR. BURTON: Well, that's probably a better question for China.

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