"... Last, but not least, there are the rather important matters of legitimacy and public support in the West, in Russia and in China.
Opposition to Iran going nuclear smacks to many as hypocrisy, given Israel’s well known but undeclared status as a nuclear-weapons state, and given the way both India and Pakistan have been forgiven for having come out of the nuclear closet in the late 1990s. “Why shouldn’t Iran have nuclear weapons?” many will and do ask.
It is in the answer to that question that a policy framework lies, however, one that even stands a chance of uniting the West, Russia and China, however narked the Chinese may be about Barack Obama shaking hands last week with the Dalai Lama. As a new report from the excellent International Crisis Group points out, China may not feel the same sense of urgency as the West over Iran, but it is still reluctant to harm its relations with America by blocking measures altogether.....
President Obama has been much criticised for being ineffectual in foreign policy, as he was for accepting the Nobel Peace Prize before having achieved anything. But he has actually set up a potentially powerful trap both for Iran and for P5 members, such as China, that are reluctant to condemn Iran. He has done this by setting up two summits, in April and May respectively, to discuss nuclear security and to review the NPT — exactly the sort of initiative that was praised by the Nobel prize committee. These will, or should, put both Iran and China on some sort of spot.
Before then, a decision on tightening sanctions is likely to have to be made. Pushing for quick, tough sanctions would be pointless: they wouldn’t work, they risk strengthening the regime, and China might well block them. But a slower squeeze on Iran, playing for time until the nuclear summits but making a political point, would be more worthwhile...."
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