Wednesday, February 24, 2010

"..Iran's influence is a reflection of the regional environment & the unimaginative, tentative, & self-defeating approach of the Arabs.."

The King's "Ardha", 2 by Ammar Abd Rabbo.
".... In many ways, Turkey's rise as a major diplomatic player on the Iraqi stage serves as a counterpoint to Iran's magnified role, with both pro-actively promoting their interests by attempting to reintegrate Iraq into the region on their own terms. That stands in stark contrast to Iraq's Arab neighbors, who have utterly failed to seriously prepare for the United States' impending withdrawal.........Turkey's strategy toward Iraq's Kurds has largely been predicated on a policy of golden handcuffs to temper nationalist inclinations: Annual trade with the region now totals over $5 billion, and the KRG's reliance on Turkey as its primary outlet to the outside world has created a degree of effectively coercive economic dependence.
Turkey's involvement in Iraq mirrors, if on a smaller scale, that of Iran, the natural beneficiary in grand strategic terms of the fall of Saddam Hussein. Iran's magnified role in post-war Iraq is in many ways driven by geography, history, commerce and religious ties, as well as by Tehran's support to many of the Iraqi political organizations while in exile. But Iran's influence is also a reflection of the broader regional environment and the unimaginative, tentative, and self-defeating approach of the Arab world.
To be fair, the Arab world faced a difficult dilemma in Iraq, complicated by bitter recent history and the divisive U.S. invasion. Baghdad's nascent Shiite-led government has been wary of engaging with the broader region, due to still-fresh memories of Arab acquiescence and silence in the face of Saddam Hussein's brutal repression. The descent into sectarian civil war in 2005-2007 particularly fanned tensions with the Sunni Arab world, while the historical legacy of Iraq's crushing debt burden from the Iran-Iraq War complicated Baghdad's relations with the Gulf Arab states and continues to be a source of friction.......
For the Arab states, their initial coolness toward Iraq was driven by the overwhelming unpopularity of the U.S. invasion in the region and a fear of being associated with the U.S. project in Iraq. The perception of an overbearing Iranian role in Baghdad further fueled the new "Arab Cold War"........
Yet despite these formidable hurdles, Turkey's example should be instructive. Ankara shifted toward a pragmatic strategy of engagement to frame its bilateral affairs and magnify its influence. While Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and other Arab states have re-established diplomatic relations, their efforts to deepen relations with Iraq have not extended far beyond the bare minimum of diplomatic protocol.
For the United States, the reintegration of Iraq into the Arab world should be a key plank of any post-withdrawal regional strategy seeking to establish the basis for long-term stability ....But regional reintegration will be lopsided without active Arab participation. While U.S. influence within Iraq has decreased, its ability to prod its Arab allies and its willingness to prioritize Arab outreach to Iraq within its bilateral relations with these countries remains an important tool to secure Iraqi goodwill and shape regional security dynamics. With the impending drawdown of U.S. troops, the Arab states' worst fears regarding an expanding Iranian sphere of influence will only be exacerbated by their own lethargy. Without a perceptible shift in approach, the Arab world will be party to a self-fulfilling prophecy."

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