Friday, February 12, 2010

Haaretz: "... Millions may have taken to the streets, but most of them were supporters of the regime ..."

"... It appears the regime is keen to rally broad public support for its nuclear program as a flagship achievement, at a time of growing isolation abroad and economic difficulties at home.
Without a revolution inside Iran, the Obama administration seems to have little choice but to rally broad international support for imposing substantive sanctions on Tehran. The dilemma facing the Americans and Europeans is to what extent tough measures can be directed only at the regime, so that they do not boomerang and rally popular support for the ayatollahs.
Various simulations held by research institutes in the United States and Israel suggest that the Iranians are much more focused on their goal than the West is, and are thus likely to be able to squeeze further concessions from the international community.
Israel is concerned that a gap will develop between its aims and Washington's aims, which are apparently to get Iran to resume negotiations ¬ which would undoubtedly produce a less decisive outcome.
Another issue of concern is that the second anniversary of the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh, the Hezbollah terrorist mastermind whose demise the radical Lebanese organization blames on Israel, is this weekend. Hezbollah wants revenge, and Israeli intelligence agencies think it is likely to try attack Israeli targets overseas, in an effort to hide its involvement."

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