situation with trans-Caspian transportation and potentially to that project’s detriment......""....... Iran’s purchase price for Turkmen gas is not disclosed officially. On one occasion in 2008 Ashgabat halted deliveries amid disagreements over the price, during a cold-weather snap in Iran. Farther downstream Turkey experienced the repercussions of that brief halt. Turkmenistan’s Dauletabad field traditionally supplied the lion’s share of Turkmen gas deliveries to Russia, until Moscow stopped all its imports of Turkmen gas in April 2009. Russia is resuming imports this month at a level of only 10 bcm for 2010, down from the previous annual average of 45 bcm
Ashgabat and Tehran responded promptly to that situation. They agreed in July 2009 to build the new pipeline and completed it in only six months. The pipeline runs for approximately 182 kilometers, including 30 km in Turkmenistan and some 150 km. in Iran. This transmission line connects with Iran’s internal supply network at the Khangiran gas processing plant and distribution center Khangiran, in Iran’s Khorasan province.
Iran uses Turkmen gas partly for supplying northern Iranian provinces and partly for swapping gas to Turkey. Meager volumes that Iran supplies to Armenia are also imported or swapped by from Turkmenistan.
With Turkmen gas expected to reach Iran in growing volumes, Turkey is interested in receiving more Turkmen gas via Iran, or Iranian gas freed up by Turkmen deliveries. Yildiz told Berdimuhamedov and Ahmadinejad during this event, that Turkey can use those added volumes partly for its own consumption and also for the Nabucco pipeline project to Europe. Yagsygeldi Kakayev, the head of Turkmenistan’s State Agency for Management and Use of Natural Resources, told Yildiz that “Turkmen gas will reach Turkey as alternative routes develop”Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had discussed these issues during his October 2009 visit to Tehran while also reaching out politically to Ahmadinejad. Agreements of intent signed on that occasion include exploration, production, and transportation of Iranian natural gas, notwithstanding US sanctions in that sector. Turkey is also interested in receiving future Turkmen gas production volumes via Iran, irrespective of the
Friday, January 15, 2010
The Turkish-Iranian "subplot" ...
In the Jamestown Foundation/ here
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Erdogan seems to see Turkey as the center, a decade hence, of a regional gas distribution network involving Central Asia, Iran, and West Europe. Given the weak state of Iran's economy and its current reliance on rapidly declining oil reserves, if Erdogan's vision becomes reality, Iran will have a very strong incentive to behave peacefully. Given the enormous role of the IRGC in Iran's hydrocarbon trade, the IRGC will at that point have the same incentive to avoid war.
What is better: a weak angry Iran or a strong Iran whose economy depends on cooperation?
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