Pope Shenouda III: "...most Egyptians love Gamal Mubarak and they will vote for him..."

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Shenouda & Bozo '

WINEP/ here

" .... the community was politically marginalized after Gamal Abdul Nasser's 1952 coup......

News of the killings in Naga Hammadi came as a shock, though the church in question had reportedly been placed under police protection before the shooting because of threats related to the alleged rape. The day after the attack, thousands of Copts gathered at the morgue to protest the lack of effective protection and to collect the bodies. There, they clashed with security forces, and six more Copts were killed in the resulting melee. On January 8, police announced that three suspects had been apprehended, but the news did little to calm the situation. The next day, several Christian homes in nearby villages were torched, prompting retaliation against Muslim dwellings.

Meanwhile, back in Cairo, parliament has been consumed by the incident, with Qena provincial governor Magdy Ayoub providing controversial testimony before a joint meeting of the Defense and National Security and Religious Affairs committees. According to Ayoub, the Naga Hammadi killers were "not religiously inspired," as the Copts and most other observers have argued. Rather, they were motivated by the rape and by anger over reports of Christians downloading pornographic pictures of Muslim women on their cellphones. For his part, perennial speaker of parliament Fathi Srour offered a more traditional official explanation of the killings, pointing to "the presence of foreign hands...looking for an opportunity to shake Egyptian security." ............ in Naga Hammadi, the Copts are calling for Ayoub (a Mubarak appointee) to resign.

This latest incident comes in the aftermath of some dramatic government steps to curtail Islamist political participation. In the 2005 parliamentary elections, the Muslim Brotherhood won eighty-eight seats, or 20 percent of the legislature. In 2007, in an effort to forestall similar gains in this year's elections, the Mubarak regime engineered constitutional amendments and a restrictive new electoral law that makes it nearly impossible for the group to participate. In addition, the government has arrested hundreds of MB members over the past two years, including the group's leading local financier.

The regime's campaign appears to be influencing the MB's orientation. In 2008, in a direct challenge to government policy, the group issued several unprecedented statements in support of Hamas and Hizballah. More recently, during December 2009 internal balloting to select its 16-member executive committee and replace Supreme Guide Muhammad Mehdi Akef, the MB bypassed several moderate incumbents -- including Akef's deputy, Muhammad Habib -- and installed a more conservative leadership instead. Yesterday, the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat reported that the new Supreme Guide will be Muhammad Badia, who received 66 of 100 votes from the organization's Shura Council. According to the newspaper, Badia is "among the most hardline leaders, devoted to the tactics of Sayyed Qutb," .........

The MB's shift toward a more conservative leadership does not suggest that Egypt's Islamists have decided to return to violence -- in fact, the MB condemned the Naga Hammadi attack on its website. Rather, the vote reflects the outcome of an internal debate regarding the utility of participating in the sclerotic and repressive Egyptian political system. ......

If history is any indication, Egypt's Copts would likely be among the first victims should this kind of radicalization occur. In addition to religious motivations, the targeting of Christians would also have a political dimension related to the presumed transfer of power from President Hosni Mubarak to his son Gamal. Whereas former MB Supreme Guide Akef has stated that his organization "will never agree to a man like [Gamal] as Egypt's president," Coptic Pope Shenouda III has seemingly endorsed his candidacy, declaring at one point that "most Egyptians love Gamal Mubarak and they will vote for him ahead of any other candidate."

The outrage in Naga Hammadi may turn out to be an isolated incident. Even so, developments within the MB suggest that frustrations among Egypt's Islamists are on the rise. Although the government will likely take steps to keep these frustrations in check -- especially through this year's parliamentary voting and the 2011 presidential election resumed targeting of the Coptic community may prove a leading indicator of future, broader violence: Christians today, regime authorities and foreign tourists tomorrow.