Iran simulation Games from Israel & Washington: More grim results ...

Laura Rosen on Tel Aviv University & the Carnegie Endowment / here

"Earlier this month, a high-level Iran simulation at Harvard demonstrated that U.S. unilateral sanctions could backfire by splintering the international coalition, instigating China and Russia to make side deals with Tehran, leaving Iran's nuclear program unchecked and putting the U.S. and Israel at odds.

Reuters reports today that a more recent simulation at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies came up with not dissimilar results:

Israel will find itself diplomatically sidelined and militarily muzzled as the United States pursues a nuclear deal with Iran next year, according to a closed-door wargame at Israel's top strategic think-tank.

Not even a warning shot by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — the simulation featured an undeclared Israeli commando raid on Iran's Arak heavy water plant — would shake U.S. President Barack Obama's insistence on dialogue.

Israel's arch-foe, meanwhile, will likely keep enriching uranium, perhaps even winning the grudging assent of the West.

"The Iranians came out feeling better than the Americans, as they were simply more determined to stick to their objectives," said Giora Eiland, a former Israeli national security adviser who played Netanyahu in the November 1 wargame at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).

Reflecting Israel's relative isolation, Eiland and his team spent much of the simulation sequestered from the multilateral talks in the snug, three-storey INSS building. ...

"Our leverage over the Americans, when we could prise them away from the Iranians and Europeans and others, was limited," Eiland told Reuters. "Pretty much the only card we had to play was the military action card. And that's a faded card." ....

An Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman said the wargame results would be incorporated in internal strategic assessments. Such papers are not generally shared with the United States. ...

We have relayed reports on a couple of recent Iran simulations at Harvard and Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies............

But sources say there was another hush-hush recent Iran simulation, this one held in Washington at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, organized by Persian Gulf expert Ken Pollack, the director of the Saban Center at Brookings. And unlike the Harvard and INSS simulations, which focused on the dynamics of international diplomacy, this one was premised on war.

There were three teams — playing the U.S., Israel and Iran, one participant said.

"It assumed an Israeli attack and the war game was about war," he said.

The outcome? "Well, everyone will have his own view," he said. "I’d say the U.S. was resentful at Israel for striking and never quite got over that. The U.S. kept saying tough things to Iran but then also asking for direct talks, which Iran interpreted as a sign of nervousness and weakness. The U.S. really didn’t know what to do, except try to keep the level of violence down and help Israel and the Gulfies defend themselves from Iranian attack."