Wednesday, December 16, 2009

"If properly enforced, then smaller, regional oil traders that do not operate in the US would emerge to get very, very rich .."

Politico/ here

"A college acquaintance who has some experience in London oil markets, writes regarding Berman's Iran sanctions legislation:

...Interesting question as to whether this is is going to "alienate members of the international alliance" ...

The companies in this business are three big oil traders (Vitol, Glencore, Trafigura); BP. Shell, and Total's trading arms; some Chinese companies, apparently (which is weird, and very political, no idea about that); and the Indian refiner Reliance. I don't have any recent data but I think Vitol is far and away the biggest player.

BP and Shell and almost certainly Total as well will just get out of this business, forget all about it and not be bothered. Their governments will not make a stink and those companies won't lobby for them to do so. I wouldn't be surprised if they are now pulling out of the business preemptively.

The company really screwed by this, if enforced, will be Vitol, the largest oil trader in the world ... Their core competence is figuring out which government official (or presidential offspring) to deal with and then giving them a cut.

Like all the oil traders this is a Swiss based company but in reality they are run largely out of London and Vitol's top managers are based in London.

There is not a chance that the current British government would go to bat on this for Vitol.

But Vitol's managing partner ... is a very big Tory donor!!! ....Here's something . . .

"If properly enforced," he continues, "then smaller, regional oil traders that do not operate in the US would emerge to do all of this business and get very, very rich."

No comments: