WINEP: "... Hizballah's military buildup will likely continue largely unabated ...unless ....."

WINEP, here

"...... The preliminary search revealed arms hidden in commercial cargo containers. According to the shipping documents, the cargo was originally loaded in Bandar Abbas, Iran, brought by another ship to the Egyptian port of Damietta, and then transloaded to the Francop, with an ultimate destination of Latakia, Syria. This destination was confirmed by Syria's foreign minister, although he denied that the shipment included arms. Neither the ship's crew nor the Egyptian authorities apparently had any knowledge of the cargo's nature.(Lebanese Army investigation revealed that the 'cargo' was loaded in Damietta!)

Following the preliminary search, the Israelis escorted the Francop to the port of Ashdod, where a complete search revealed the full extent of the arms shipment. Labels on the shipping containers and shipping documents, as well as markings on ammunition crates and the ammunition itself, established a clear link to various Iranian government organizations, including the Iranian state shipping line and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

This was a large and important shipment involving up to 500 tons of weapons stored in thirty-six containers...... Not found, were larger and longer-range types of artillery rockets, such as the Fajr-3 and Fajr-5, and advanced types of antitank missiles, such as the AT-5 and AT-14. Apparently, no munitions types that would result in a significant upgrade of Hizballah's military capability, such as surface-to-surface or surface-to-air missiles, were discovered....... Theoretically, the group could launch 200 rockets per day for 200 days, an output that would far exceed in number and duration what it achieved in 2006, when some 4000 rockets of various types were launched against Israel in 34 days. The large number of 107-mm rockets in the shipment (about 2000) suggests that Hizballah intends to operate deep into southern Lebanon -- that is, inside the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, or UNIFIL, zone. These rockets have a relatively short range of five miles, and their deployment anywhere other than close to the Israeli border would not make sense. (No, it suggests that this is the best Israel could come up with, hence the spin on what Hezbollah was to do with this junk, and raise the stakes with UNIFIL!)

........Even if Israel can impede the maritime flow of arms, no effective way exists, short of war, to stop arms shipments to Hizballah directly from Syrian arms depots or by air from Iran to Damascus and then into Lebanon.

The Francop incident illuminates weaknesses in the international effort to prevent arms from reaching Hizballah, as embodied in UN Security Council Resolutions 1701 and 1747, and in UNIFIL and NATO naval operations. Iranian compliance remains a major problem: more could be done to examine cargo originating in Iran, to raise the cost (both reputational and financial) to port authorities and shipping companies that do not exercise vigilance regarding Iranian smuggling practices, and to increase the focus on ships and cargos bound for Syrian ports. Such measures are essential -- even if they do not eliminate the problem. Hizballah's military buildup will likely continue largely unabated, however, with all this implies for stability in the region."