Saudis Courting Trouble in Yemen ...

NYTimes, here

".... On the surface, the operation looks like a great success. The Saudis used fighter jets and an overwhelming ground superiority to flush the rebels from their terrain. But now many analysts fear that the operation could backfire, drawing Saudi Arabia into a quagmire in a mountainous, tribal area and possibly even luring foreign fighters to join the rebels.

Worst of all, some say, the border skirmish could end up realizing Saudi Arabia’s worst fear: a proxy conflict with its arch-rival Iran, taking place right on its doorstep.......

......the Houthis do not seem to need military supplies from outside the country. They have had no trouble buying or stealing them from the Yemeni military, which has struggled to maintain its morale and discipline in a region torn by tribal allegiances and largely beyond the control of the central government.

The Houthis’ decision last week to seize a strategic mountain area on the Saudi border — leading to a firefight in which a Saudi guard was killed — may have been a deliberate ploy to draw a powerful military response and elicit sympathy. “I think it was calculated,” said Mustafa Alani, a security analyst with the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. “The Houthis are under pressure, and they think bringing the Saudis into the conflict could bring them more attention, and maybe even draw the Iranians in.”...The notion that the Houthis are natural religious allies of Iran is misplaced; Zaydism is doctrinally closer to Sunnism than to mainstream Shiism. But a raft of misleading news reports seem to be blurring that distinction, and circumstances may be pushing the Zaydis and Iran together. Or so their enemies fear. ......The Saudis have enemies in the region, including a Yemen-based branch of Al Qaeda as well as Iran, and experts say if they are not careful, their border war could end up forging some toxic new alliances.

“For the Iranians, this could be a strategic investment that would cost little, but possibly have a big reward,” said Mustafa Alani, the Dubai-based analyst. “The Houthis know the geography, they know how to do guerrilla warfare, and they have tribal connections. The Iranians will look at it closely.”