Moscow in the Middle

Dimitri Simes (Nixon Ctr.) in TIME Mag., here

" ..... Besides the U.S. and Iran, Russia seems to be the other major player on the nuclear issue. Whether or not Iran follows through on a draft deal to send much of its low-enriched uranium to Russia for further processing into fuel for a medical-research reactor, Moscow is in the middle. If the agreement works, it will boost Russia's international role, securing gratitude from the West without damaging Russia's ties to Tehran. If the accord falls through — or Iran agrees but does not comply — Moscow's support will be essential in imposing U.N. sanctions. China won't come along if Russia doesn't, and the Iranians know it.

The Obama Administration argues that Russia and the U.S. have a common interest in stopping Tehran from building the Bomb. This is true, but only up to a point. Russia has a history of good relations with Iran. It has substantial trade interests there and appreciates Tehran's lack of support for radical Islamists in the North Caucasus. Moscow also fears that a pro-Western Iran would exclude Russian arms, technology and energy firms.

Growing tension between President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin complicates the picture. While Medvedev has been relatively forthcoming to the U.S. line on Iran, Putin (who is indirectly in charge of the state-controlled companies that trade there) has appeared skeptical. Putin said any decision on sanctions would be made not by Medvedev alone but by Russia's Security Council, which also includes himself, his Cabinet subordinates and parliamentary leaders loyal to the Prime Minister. Administration officials deny taking sides. Yet on the eve of his July summit in Moscow, Obama praised Medvedev and referred to Putin as having "one foot in the old ways of doing business." He later praised Putin too, but his Administration has done little to build bridges with the Prime Minister, who remains a crucial national decision maker. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did not even see Putin when she was in Moscow recently, because the Administration did not coordinate the trip with his office; he was off signing an energy deal in China.

(continue, here)