"Israel is not Going to Attack Iran"

Gary Sick in an interview with Roozonline.com, here

[...]

Gary Sick: I think the Israelis feel very strongly that Iran is a major threat to them. I also think that Israel has the technical capability of bombing a number of targets in Iran; but in my judgment they are not going to blindly use that capability. This is based on the fact that everything would be worse for them if they decide to bomb. It would be worse not just because of what Iran would do but also, if they do it without having the support of the U.S., they would risk the relationship they have with the United States as well their own security.

My view is that a lot of this rhetoric is used for political purposes. It is more of a bluff. If for example you convince the United States and the European Union that an attack, with all its terrible consequences, is inevitable barring some solution to the Iranian nuclear program, at a minimum you insure that the Iranian issue is very near the top of their national agendas (for example France/ here). That is surely one of Israel’s objectives.

Rooz: What could happen in case of a strike?

Gary Sick: As I said in my talk, when Israel keeps talking practically every day of attacking Iran, to me, that is the best evidence that they are not going to do it. If you look back at almost all the raids and operations they have carried out whether it was in Entebbe, in the alleged Syrian nuclear site recently, or on Iraq’s nuclear facilities in 1982, all of those took place absolutely without any previous warning. They were treated as state secrets. Israel knew that one of their strengths was the element of surprise.

In this case, by talking about it for several years, Iran has responded by diversifying its program; they have tucked away their supplies. The storage site that was recently found near Qom was clearly meant as an alternative option in case Israel bombed Iran’s main centrifuge site in Natanz. Iran has been able to put things underground, which makes it harder for a possible strike....

..... It is a peculiar strategy to use because you are basically telling your opponent to take as many precautions as possible, or to hide the materials in question, and that is exactly what Iran has done and is doing......"