"While the tone of the Barack Obama administration is different from that of its predecessor, and some of its foreign policies diverge from those of George W Bush, both administrations subscribe at their core to the same doctrine: whatever the White House perceives as a threat - whether it be Iran, North Korea, or the proliferation of long-range missiles - must be viewed as such by Moscow and Beijing.
In addition, by the evidence available, Obama has not drawn the right conclusion from his predecessor's failed Iran policy. A paradigm of sticks-and-carrots simply is not going to work in the case of the Islamic Republic. Here, a lesson is readily available, if only the Obama White House were willing to consider Iran's recent history. It is unrealistic to expect that a regime which fought Saddam Hussein's Iraq (then backed by the United States) to a standstill in a bloody eight-year war in the 1980s, unaided by any foreign power, and has for 30 years withstood the consequences of US-imposed economic sanctions will be alarmed by Washington's fresh threats of "crippling sanctions".
Most important, the Obama administration is ignoring the altered international order that has emerged in the wake of the global financial crisis triggered by Wall Street's excesses. While its stimulus package, funded by taxpayers and foreign borrowing, has arrested the decline in the nation's gross domestic product, Washington has done little to pull the world economy out of the doldrums. That task - performed by the US in recent recessions - has fallen willy-nilly to China. History repeatedly shows that such economic clout sooner or later translates into diplomatic power........
When it comes to the nuclear conundrum, what distinguishes China and Russia from the US is that they have conferred unconditional diplomatic recognition and acceptance on the Islamic Republic of Iran. So their commercial and diplomatic links with Tehran are thriving. Indeed, a sub-structure of pipelines and economic alliances between hydrocarbon-rich Russia, Iran, and energy-hungry China is now being forged. In other words, the foundation is being laid for the emergence of a Russia-Iran-China diplomatic triad in the not-too-distant future, while Washington remains stuck in an old groove of imposing "punishing" sanctionsagainst Tehran for its nuclear program.
There is a deep and painful legacy of animosity and ill-feeling between the 30-year-old Islamic Republic of Iran and the US. Iran was an early victim of Washington's subversive activities ...... Half a century later, the Iranians watched the Bush administration invade neighboring Iraq......
Iran's leaders know that during his second term in office, as Seymour Hersh revealed in The New Yorker, Bush authorized a clandestine CIA program with a $400 million budget to destabilize the Iranian regime. They are also aware that the CIA has focused on stoking disaffection among Sunni ethnic minorities in Shi'ite-ruled Iran. These include ethnic Arabs in the oil-rich province of Khuzistan, adjoining Iraq, and ethnic Balochis in Sistan-Balochistan Province, abutting the Pakistani province of Baluchistan.
............ unless Washington ends its clandestine program to destabilize the Iranian state and caps it with an offer of diplomatic acceptance and normal relations, there is no prospect of Tehran abandoning its right to enrich uranium. On the other hand, the continuation of a policy of destabilization, coupled with ongoing threats of "crippling" sanctions and military strikes (whether by the Pentagon or Israel), can only drive the Iranians toward a nuclear breakout capability.
Bush's eight-year presidency, .......What he passed on to Obama was the Great Recession in a world where America's popularity had hit rock bottom and its economic strength was visibly ebbing. All this paved the way for the economic and political rise of China, as well as the strengthening of Russia as an energy giant capable of extending its influence in Europe and challenging American dominance in the Middle East.
In this new environment, expecting the leaders of Iran, backed by China and Russia, to do the bidding of Washington means placing a bet on the inconceivable."
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