Syria's daring brinkmanship

Al Jazeera/ here

" ... For Damascus, such a high-level visit from a leader of a regional powerhouse marks a victory for its political brinkmanship and is an acknowledgement that Syria has matured into an indispensable player in the divided Arab World.

Syrian foreign policy has been basted on two pivotal principles: first, that there are no permanent enemies and no permanent friends; and second, that every situation can and will be used as leverage that will serve national interests and ensure the survivability of the regime......

It is no coincidence that Syria was considered the next stage of the Bush administration's redrawing of the Middle East map; Iraq, followed by Syria and then, possibly Iran. Immediately after the fall of Baghdad in April 2009, Washington considered implementing regime change in Damascus as part of the Bush administration's policy of pre-emption..... Realising that its survival was at stake, Syria - in tandem with Iran - supported the insurgency in Iraq despite US sabre-rattling.

This Syrian-Iranian strategy was designed to keep US forces bogged down in the Iraqi quagmire to prevent the US military from pointing their guns at them. It worked.

But it was the assassination of al-Hariri in February 2005 that turned the tide overwhelmingly against Syria....... This was a crucial move for the Syrians, and in fact a master stroke. By heeding the US "ultimatum" in withdrawing their troops, the Syrian leadership was able to avoid the fate Saddam Hussein met when he invaded Kuwait in 1990 and refused to withdraw his forces until it was too late.....

After Israel failed to eliminate Hezbollah as a viable threat in its war in 2006 - and following "regime change" in Washington with the Obama administration in the White House - Syria was able transform the Saudi-backed Hariri tribunal into a side show that is more like a nuisance than a real threat. Moreover, Saudi Arabia, and to a certain extent Egypt, reached the realisation that the new Obama administration in Washington no longer considers Syria as an obstacle to its plans in the region but rather a possible partner when the time is ripe to sit at the bargaining table......."