WINEP: "rise of salafism in Egypt ...product of decades of expatriate workers returning from Saudi Arabia with Wahhabi sensibilities..."

WINEP, here

".... Since late June, the government has arrested dozens of mid- and high-level Islamists, including the leader of the movement's guidance council, Abd al-Muanem Abu al-Fatouh. ..... While the current campaign is reminiscent of Egyptian presidents Gamal Abdul Nasser and Anwar Sadat's repression of the Islamist movement in the 1960s and 1970s -- which resulted in the emergence of other radical factions -- this crackdown has created an unprecedented crisis for the MB.......

Although in the short term Cairo's actions might reduce MB representation in government, in the long term the persecution strategy could backfire. The arrest of moderate elements of the MB could lead to factionalization, pushing younger members to embrace violent protest or to call for civil disobedience. Some in the movement likely see a return to violence as a way out of the present impasse. Anticipating this backlash, MB leadership has already urged its youth to stick with peaceful, political, and legal means in its struggle against the regime.

Radical Islam: A Comeback?

The combination of severe repression and the increasingly difficult economic situation faced by most Egyptians could contribute to a reradicalization of Egyptian society at large and the Islamist sector in particular. Egyptian society would seem to be fertile ground, with the ideological and social influence of Salafism taking hold. In addition to its appeal among the young generation, the spread of Salafist doctrine has been the product of decades of expatriate workers returning from Saudi Arabia with Wahhabi sensibilities. This radical and puritanical trend has reached into all social classes, ...... no doubt winning over new recruits in the process.

While these dynamics are troubling, perhaps the most compelling evidence of the Egyptian MB reradicalization is the group's unprecedented affiliation with and public support of the Iranian-backed militant organizations Hamas and Hizballah. In recent months, the Egyptian MB has issued strong statements in support of these organizations, provoking a government counteroffensive.......

Conclusion

For decades, the Mubarak regime has restricted individual freedoms, leaving only the government's National Democratic Party and Egypt's Islamist opposition to compete politically. With this latest crackdown, what little space there is to legitimately influence domestic politics through nonviolent means has been closed off for the Islamists. .......the Obama administration should reprioritize human rights and find ways to empower democrats and civil society organizations as the best long-term mechanism to counter reradicalization in Egypt. Given the administration's larger foreign policy preoccupations, however, it remains unlikely that it will do so. Egypt's difficulties will deepen in the meantime, with profound negative consequences for both the country and the region."