WINEP: "...differences NOT bridgeable on Jerusalem, refugees, and security"

WINEP, here

"......... Borders first. The borders-first approach simply defines the borders of Israel and a future Palestinian state. This approach assumes that most of the core issues, such as Jerusalem and refugees, are too difficult to solve at this time. Moreover, lasting security arrangements will take considerable time, given that Israel has been bombarded with rockets ever since it vacated Gaza. Last year, however, Israeli and Palestinian negotiators agreed that swapped land inside Israel should be equal in size to the West Bank settlement blocs Israel would retain. Differences in opinion over the percentage are minimal.

This convenience of only bridging a narrow gap is accompanied by other advantages. By demarcating the borders of a two-state solution, the United States and Israel would end the irritant friction over settlements that has marred their relationship for forty years. In short, the way to deal with settlements is by making the issue moot. Instead of having 285,000 settlers representing bargaining chips, their legal status would be clarified. Since about 80 percent of Israeli settlers live in less than 5 percent of the West Bank -- largely, but not completely, adjacent to the pre-1967 boundaries -- an equal amount of land within Israel could be swapped in exchange, allowing each side to claim victory. For the Palestinian Authority, a swap would vindicate Fatah's -- rather than Hamas's -- approach to the conflict, in that diplomacy was successful in establishing the West Bank and the borders of a two-state solution. Israel, in turn, would gain a long-sought international stamp of legitimacy on most of the West Bank settlements annexed in such a deal. Until now, Likud leaders like Menachem Begin and Yitzhak Shamir could not annex even a single settlement because of lack of international support. Moreover, for all concerned, one of the core issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would be resolved.

While this approach will grant Netanyahu major gains, it will require him to alienate those settlers -- some 55,000 to 70,000 -- whose settlements will be on the wrong side of the border...."