".... conventional wisdom emerged in Western policy-making circles: The Iranian regime, if it survived, would be significantly weakened by internal problems and would abandon its regional ambitions. Tehran's influence in the Middle East will diminish as the hardline regime scrambles to ensure its own survival.This is wishful thinking. The best way Iran's clerical hierarchy and military apparatus can shore up their Islamic and populist credentials, and maintain their grip on power, is to engage in more adventurism abroad..............
This moment does present an opportunity for the Arab states to wrest some populist legitimacy from Iran. The Obama administration can help by pushing for renewed Arab-Israeli peace talks. Even incremental movement toward a peace deal can potentially weaken the axis of resistance at a time when its legitimacy is in question. The administration must also continue its outreach to Syria, which has shown new willingness to return to the Arab fold.
But President Obama should be careful not to overemphasize the notion of splitting Syria away from Iran. The Syrian-Iranian alliance has endured for more than 25 years. It cannot be undone lightly. No matter how much the U.S. and its allies might wish it, imperial Iran is not going away any time soon.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
"...This is an opportunity for the Arab states to wrest some populist legitimacy from Iran .. and, continued 'Syria outreach' ..."
CFR's Bazzi, in the WSJ, here
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Mr Bazzi's comments are an indication of how Arab elites would like to bend backwards to please the White Man. His analysis is a mixture of facts and wishful thinking. Especially towards the end that this could be a historical moment for Arab (corrupt and despotic and US allies!) regimes to wrest legitimacy from Iran. As if it was they who had the initiative. Incremental peace moves will not lead to any legitimacy to such regimes, especially when all 'initiatives' on the table ignore the basic rights of the Palestinians, and especially the right of return. Arab regimes have abdicated since Camp David any role in solving the Palestinian problem. They happily let that matter be addressed by Israel and successive US administrations. We know how 'successful' they were!
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