Is Obama wasting his time trying to court the Saudis?

in TNR, here

".........Obama's (presumably instinctive) gesture was understandable. Perhaps no one is more important to the success of his foreign policy agenda than the king. Consider the list: Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Guantanamo, terrorism, the global economy, Middle East peace--on each of these issues, the Saudis play a vital role. "Saudi Arabia is a nexus," says one administration official. "It's a big deal on everything."

That's why Obama has put considerable work into building a rapport with Abdullah..... "The king is old school," says a senior White House official. "He likes to do things face-to-face. For him, it all begins and ends with the personal relationship. Before you can get to the substance, you have to work on that relationship."

Obama and Abdullah may be off to a cordial start personally. Substantively, however, the U.S.-Saudi relationship threatens to become a debacle--one that could drag Obama's foreign policy down with it. While the White House disputes reports that the Riyadh meeting went poorly, in Obama's first seven months, the kingdom has stymied or stalled administration efforts on multiple fronts--from the peace process to Iraq to Guantanamo. The White House is scrambling to win cooperation and avoid affront, but, in the end, the problem may simply be that Obama needs the Saudis more than they need him.

At the moment, nothing bedevils the relationship quite like the Middle East peace process. ........."Incrementalism and a step-by-step approach has not and, we believe, will not lead to peace," Faisal said. Instead, he called for "a comprehensive approach," like one proposed in the Saudi-backed 2002 Arab League peace initiative, which focuses on final-status issues like borders, refugees, and the fate of Jerusalem. Speaking in a polite tone that was at odds with his striking rebuke of Clinton, Faisal said that Israel is "shifting attention from the core issue . . . to incidental issues such as academic conferences and civil aviation matters." Israel, he concluded, "must decide if it wants real peace," or else "lead the region into a maelstrom of instability and violence." It was, says Rachel Bronson, a Saudi expert at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, "an unbelievable statement . . . those were very harsh remarks."

The rebuke should hardly have come as a surprise. Abdullah,.... is said to be personally obsessed with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. .........Obama had hoped to pry peace-process concessions from the Saudis during his visit to Riyadh and was upset when he failed. One former top Bush administration official says such intransigence would be no surprise...... "It was really more of an investment" in the personal relationship, says a senior White House official. The official, just one of four people present other than the two leaders, also disputed reports that the king had disrespectfully lectured Obama about Israel......

Even if Obama was tempted to butt heads with the king about the peace process, however, he may have felt compelled to hold his tongue. Obama needs Saudi assistance on multiple fronts. Take Guantanamo, whose closure by the start of next year will almost certainly require a major assist from the Saudis. ......... the country's terrorist-rehabilitation program. This effort is being spearheaded by White House counterterrorism adviser John Brennan, who, as a former CIA station chief in Riyadh, is probably the Obama team's most trusted line to the royal family. In March, Brennan met with Abdullah in Saudi Arabia and toured their terrorist-rehabilitation facility. Reports have circulated for months that the Saudis were close to accepting several Yemenis, and one well-informed source outside the administration says Brennan believed he had a deal after his last visit (a claim the White House denies). Regardless, the negotiations creep along with no imminent breakthrough in sight--and with only four months remaining until Gitmo is supposed to close.

Perhaps even more important to Obama is Saudi cooperation on Iran. The Obama team is well aware that the Sunni-dominated kingdom views the rising influence of Shia Iran with a combination of fear and loathing. "The first thing [the Saudis] think about when it comes to regional politics is the contest for influence with Iran. Everything gets filtered through that lens," says F. Gregory Gause III, a Saudi expert at the University of Vermont. That's why administration officials believe Riyadh can be enlisted to help block Tehran's nuclear ambitions. In their recent book, Myths, Illusions & Peace, Obama's Iran point man, Dennis Ross, and his co-author, David Makovsky, argue that the Saudis should leverage their massive financial holdings in Europe against Tehran--privately telling key banking, investment, and energy companies on the Continent that "those who cut all ties to the Iranians would be rewarded by the Saudis," while those who don't will lose business. Similarly, Ross--who himself met with Abdullah earlier this year--proposes that the Saudis press the Chinese, who have developed major ties to the kingdom's oil industry, to take a harder line against Iran, lest they miss out on future opportunities for petrol profits. But, however much the Saudis may want to check Iran, Abdullah may be wary of aligning himself too closely with the United States and Israel against another Muslim nation. "It's an open question whether [the Gulf Arab] countries would be willing to join a very tough sanctions regime," says Nicholas Burns, who handled the issue for the Bush State Department.

The list of fraught subjects goes on--as evidenced by the parade of senior Obama officials who have jetted into Saudi Arabia in recent months. In July, it was Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, concerned about the role of oil prices, as well as the hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. currency reserves the Saudis are believed to hold, in the global economic recovery. In May, it was Defense Secretary Robert Gates seeking Saudi assistance in Pakistan...... Meanwhile, Obama officials are also pushing the Saudis to help integrate Iraq into regional politics by dispatching an ambassador there, a move the Saudis--resentful at the rise of a Shia regime in Baghdad--have been reluctant to make.......

Administration officials insist that the Saudis are doing more than meets the eye. Riyadh has spent millions supporting Lebanon's pro-western Sunni political bloc in its struggle with Hezbollah. The Saudis also provide Washington with important cooperation on counterterrorism,...... And the White House is eager to tout Abdullah's recent agreement to send $200 million to the Palestinian Authority--a move the White House calls significant given that the Saudis have generally resisted the U.S.-Israeli strategy of bolstering the PA while blockading Hamas. One senior official describes this funding as "a deliverable" from Obama's June trip to Riyadh. Critics, however, say the sum is puny compared to funding pledges the Saudis have made in the past.

For Obama, the core problem may be that Abdullah doesn't need to cater to the new American president. It's true that the Saudis fear Iran and welcome U.S. efforts to stop its nuclear program. But the Saudis are equally suspicious that Obama will cut a deal with Tehran that leaves Riyadh feeling more threatened than ever by Shia power. At the same time, the industrialization of China and India means that the Saudis have plenty of other customers for their oil. And, if there's anything that motivates Abdullah and his kin above all else, it is fear of an uprising by the Saudi "street." That means that the Saudis will always take care to champion--and demagogue--the Palestinian cause, making them difficult partners in pursuing Middle East peace...."