Cairo Joins the Battle against Tehran

WINEP's Schenker, here

"........ the submarines and the Israeli SAAR V-Class warships that passed through Egypt a few weeks later were big news in the region, a stark reminder that as Iranian centrifuges continue to spin, the deadline for Israeli military action is fast approaching. The movement of the sub -- a ship believed to carry nuclear tipped cruise missiles -- was an unmistakable Israeli warning to Tehran.

These latest naval deployments also suggest that the warning to Iran extends beyond the Israelis. .....Egypt's Mubarak regime has been demonstrating an increasingly public identification with the nascent coalition against Iran. ..... recent developments -- including unprecedented public strategic cooperation with Israel -- suggest that Cairo has finally joined the campaign against Tehran.

Egypt's awakening should be a welcome development in Washington and is sure to be on the agenda when Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak meets President Obama in the White House on August 17. ......

Just months after the Hezbollah arrests were announced, Cairo once again found itself at odds with Tehran and its ally Syria, this time in Lebanon. In the aftermath of the June 7 Lebanese elections -- where the pro-west March 14 coalition upset the odds-on-favorite Hezbollah-led alliance -- Cairo has reportedly made efforts to undermine the nascent Syrian--Saudi Arabian political rapprochement. ....

A broad range of sources suggest that Cairo has played a critical role in delaying a Saudi-Syrian agreement over Lebanon that would have cemented the bilateral ties, formally returned Damascus to the Arab fold, and reinstituted a degree of Syrian control over Beirut. In July, Hezbollah MP Ali Fayyad said Egypt was "clearly annoyed with the energetic Saudi move to reinvigorate relations with Syria." According to Fayyad, Cairo's opposition to the talks resulted in a loss of Saudi enthusiasm for the thaw. The Shiite militia's cable network Al-Manar likewise attributed problems in the talks to "Egyptian coldness." Even Hariri's March 14 Druze ally Walid Jumblatt suggested that Cairo was responsible for the lack of progress in the talks. As Jumblatt lamented to the Lebanese daily As-Safir on July 8, "Unfortunately, there are Arab and Western quarters that do not want to establish the Saudi-Syrian dialogue."

Cairo's opposition to the rapprochement appeared to be driven by two factors. First, the Mubarak regime wants Syria to pressure Damascus-based Hamas to join a national unity government with Fatah, a development that would pressure Israel to re-engage in peace negotiations with the Palestinians. Secondly, it appears that Egypt wants to bolster the moderate March 14 coalition against its Iranian-supported adversaries. Indeed, many analysts believe this was Cairo's motivation in waiting to announce the November 2008 arrest of the Hezbollah cell until April 2009 -- just two months before Lebanese elections. Egypt, not coincidentally, announced the arrest of a second Hezbollah cell in mid-July.

Regardless of Cairo's rationale, the apparent challenge to the Saudi-Syrian talks has hurt Damascus and, by extension, Iran. ..........

But the most obvious manifestation of Egypt's unprecedented stand against Iran has been its overt support for the transit of Israeli warships through the Suez Canal. Although Egyptian officials say that Israel has long had explicit access to the waterway -- Aboul Gheit said it was Israel's "right" under the 1888 Convention of Constantinople -- movement of the ships comes at a particularly sensitive time.....

Over the past decade, Egypt has seen its influence and traditional leadership role in the region decline, eclipsed by the robust, militant, and interventionist foreign policy of Iran. In the past six months, however, Cairo has adopted a more aggressive military, diplomatic, and public affairs posture vis-a-vis Tehran. Today Egypt's posture stands in sharp contrast to the quietest and relatively inconsequential regional role it has played in recent years. Given the level of criticism the Mubarak regime has been willing to absorb in pursuit of its new tack, countering the Iranian nuclear program and its regionally subversive policies is certainly a priority.

It's unclear whether Cairo will sustain its diplomatic efforts to embarrass and isolate Tehran and its allies and enhance its own strategic cooperation with Israel. But it appears that the Mubarak regime has made the decision to oppose Iranian regional hegemony, and will likely stick with it, at least until negotiations or a military strike resolve the nuclear issue. ..... "