Thursday, July 16, 2009

The US' Attention Turns to Syria

The 'Could' with the Likkud (and others in Israel) is an exercise in futility. In the PULSE, here

".... By distancing itself from Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah and strengthening its relationship with the United States, Syria could increase its regional influence.

....By strengthening its relationship with the United States and Europe through an Israeli-Syrian peace deal, Syria could continue to refinance its heavy foreign debt and attract foreign investment to spur economic growth.

Prime Minister Netanyahu could also benefit from an Israeli-Syrian treaty. Such a deal would demonstrate his commitment to the peace process and improve his relationship with President Obama. However, Prime Minister Netanyahu will face strong opposition to a Golan withdrawal. According to Hof, polls consistently show that 70 percent of Israelis are unwilling to give up the Golan ...

Since Israel relies on the Sea of Galilee as its primary natural reservoir to serve its dense population centers, Hof's proposal avoids giving Syria the ability to increase its population density in the Golan Heights and possibly jeopardize Israel's water supply. Instead, the proposal strives to "minimize the Syrian impact on waters vital to Israel's economy, facilitate Israeli civilian access to the full circumference of the Sea, and carve out an area where Syrian-Israeli people-to-people contacts might easily and informally take place." .....In essence "Syria gets the land and regulated access to the water, and Israel gets the water and regulated access to the land." Bi-national access to the preserve will further increase Israeli-Syrian civilian contact and contribute to the development of a "warm peace."

Though Hof offers a practical and feasible solution, he neglects a major source of contention within the Israeli-Syrian relationship: terrorist sponsorship. It is unlikely that Israel will reach an agreement if Syria does not promise to renounce its ties with Hezbollah and Hamas.

Hof contends that Syrian renunciation of terror is a consequence, not a stipulation of the treaty, since "Syria would be unable to uphold its end of normal peaceful relations." ..."

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