Shiite Clerical Establishment Supports Khamenei

WINEP, here

"....Although this support has been demonstrated through silence, the fact that most Shiite clerics have not intervened in the public debate over the election or the government's use of force against protesters has been particularly effective in strengthening Khamenei's position. ...

The ayatollahs in Qom and Isfahan who have criticized the recent presidential election are isolated, with no significant role in the clerical establishment; they lack both financial resources and religious popularity. ...

A small marginal group, the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qom Seminary, is the only clerical group that has explicitly referred to the presidential election as illegitimate. The association was founded in 1998, and its central council consists of eighteen midranking clerics and one ayatollah. This group plays no role in the administration of the clerical establishment, and none of its members are considered to be sources of emulation. The association was originally created to support former president Muhammad Khatami, but its support has remained symbolic rather than practical. The group's secretary, the controversial Seyyed Hossein Moussavi Tabrizi, was involved in the execution of many of the regime's opponents and political prisoners while he was the general prosecutor of the Revolutionary Court during the first decade of Islamic Republic .....

The Shiite clerical establishment, which stretches across the Middle East, is highly unlikely to initiate any sort of opposition to Khamenei's authority. Various Shiite leaders may not be happy with the Iranian government's policies, but publicizing their differences might jeopardize the social, political, and financial advantages they now receive from Iran. For example, during his Friday sermon immediately after the Iranian election, Seyyed Mohammad Hossein Fazlallah, a prominent Shiite ayatollah in Lebanon, stated his support for the government's official result and voiced his admiration of the Iranian people for their participation in the election. In Iraq, al-Sistani kept silent about the election result and has not reacted to the postelection crisis. Both ayatollahs have offices in Qom and benefit from the support of the Iranian government.

Inside Iran, support for Khamenei, although mostly silent, is also evident. Morteza Moqtadai, the head of Center for Seminary Management, announced that the election result was approved by "God and the Hidden Imam," and stated that Khamenei's words are the "Hidden Imam's words; when he says there was no manipulation in the election, he should be heard as the ultimate arbiter."

Khamenei -- for the moment -- is in a strong position. The clerical establishment's prevailing silence, however, could eventually work against him. If the political tide begins to turn, the establishment could be rendered powerless and its support ineffective, leaving Khamenei and his followers in a vulnerable position. "