"... Regional thaw rubbing off on Lebanon ..."

OxfAn, excerpts: 

"....The result effectively reproduces the parliament of the last four years, condemning Hizbollah and its allies to another electoral period in opposition. The prospect of a continued pro-Western government in Lebanon could aid US attempts to create momentum in regional peace negotiations.

ANALYSIS: Despite reports from international election observers of widespread vote-buying, Lebanon's 2009 parliamentary elections were conducted relatively freely, fairly and quietly. Big crowds queued at polling stations for hours, and a sometimes hateful tone emerged in the electoral campaign. ....

Turnout impact. Voter turnout surpassed 54%, a record in Lebanese history and 10% higher than the fiercely fought 2005 elections. The number signals a growing popular belief in Lebanon's democracy since 2005 ...

Hizbollah reaction. Hizbollah officials have reacted graciously in defeat. The party won all eleven seats which it contested and can therefore argue that it won the elections even if March 8 did not. It will also feel that the result does not change the status quo:

• It will therefore insist on a blocking third in a unity government, allowing it to continue to obstruct the passing of legislation if necessary.
• It will continue to make clear that it will not tolerate any questioning of its role as a resistance party, the legitimacy of its weapons arsenal, and the fact that Israel is an enemy state.
• The outcome may suit it better than winning a majority, which would have made it the governing party and forced it to produce results. Instead it now retains its well-rehearsed role as the critical oppositional voice.

Christian battle. For March 8's other main constituent, Aoun's FPM, the defeat will generate more soul-searching:

• Aoun has failed to persuade the majority of Lebanon's Christians with his programme based on anti-corruption, secularism and bridge-building with Lebanon's Shia parties, amid widespread scepticism about Hizbollah.
• The defeat could lead to an internal coup in the FPM, whose younger leaders have previously voiced unhappiness with 'the General'.

Unity government. As leader of the majority party in parliament, Saad al-Hariri will be given the task of leading negotiations for a new government and set the direction of national policy. He will have no other choice than to aim for another all-embracing 'unity government', the third since 2005. The key question is the extent to which March 14 will now use their relatively comfortable majority in negotiations:

• Hariri has signalled his unwillingness to grant the opposition veto power ...
• Hizbollah and its allies will make veto power an absolute demand, ...

Drawn-out government formation. These points of disagreement could lead to a drawn-out government formation process. In a worst-case scenario, Lebanon could be without a government for months, increasing the risk of violent clashes, and bringing back the fundamental schisms over which Lebanon's political life has been log jammed for the last four years,...

Regional context. As always in Lebanon, much depends on the regional context. US President Barack Obama's less confrontational approach and nascent Syrian-Saudi rapprochement may already have contributed to the calmer atmosphere. If the Obama administration's regional peace efforts gain momentum, and the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Syria continues, a regional thaw could rub off on Lebanon.

US Middle East envoy George Mitchell will be in Beirut on June 14 for talks with Suleiman. A win for Mir Hossein Moussavi in this week's Iranian elections and renewed Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts could generate further optimism. Such progress would lessen the mistrust between political parties in Lebanon:

• Hizbollah could accept Hariri as prime minister and even relinquish the blocking third in exchange for guarantees regarding its weapons.
• Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who has been moving towards rapprochement with Syria and Hizbollah in recent months, could become a crucial bridging figure....

Policy challenges. Suleiman stressed yesterday that a new government must focus on political and administrative reforms. His comments reflected fear that a new unity government could be just as sclerotic as the previous ones. After extended periods of political stalemate in the last four years, Lebanon faces a long list of overdue social and economic policy challenges:

• The electoral law, which was amended last year but is still far from meeting international standards, requires changes.
• Reform of the judiciary is needed in order to tackle widespread corruption.
• Work is needed to begin to bring down Lebanon's 42 billion dollar foreign debt...."