"... The analysts say about a third of the Assembly members are loyal to Mr. Rafsanjani. Of the other members, perhaps a quarter are considered loyal to Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a mentor to Mr. Ahmadinejad and a staunchly conservative figure ....The rest are viewed as independents who could vote either way.
“If the clergy become Khamenei’s enemy, just think about it,” Mr. Kholdi said. “The shah made Qum his enemy, and they did not cease to plot against him until he was overthrown.”... The few voices that have emerged so far were already firmly fixed in the liberal camp.
Analysts suspect that Mr. Rafsanjani’s message to the rest of the religious establishment is that it is about to be eclipsed by the military, which supports the government.... The risk for the supreme leader and Mr. Ahmadinejad if the mullahs shift away from them is that the idea that the government carries an Islamic stamp of approval will be undermined..."
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