On Dennis Ross' "authorized leak"...

.... I've reported on this but there've been various unfilled in uncertainties. But it just clicked in my small brain what's going on with Ross.

Say you're Obama and you are trying to engage with Iran. You have in mind that that effort will not really get underway in a major way until after Iran's elections. And because you want to emphasize that effort is at its basis diplomatic, an extension of US diplomacy as opposed to force, the Iran engagement policy will be run out of the State Department, and plan to be ramped up after Iran's June 12th elections.

The Iranians let it be known through UN channels immediately after Ross appointment floated that they will not deal with him. US actually made concessions to their objection without saying as much: Iran is not technically in Ross's title, (special advisor to HRC on Gulf and Southwest Asia), he didn't get the high profile roll out of Holbrooke and Mitchell nor the title that would have him reporting directly to the president as they have, nor the "envoy" title. Obama administration also made clear that undersecretary of state Bill Burns will remain US point person at P5+1 negotiations which Iran has now been invited to attend and US has indicated it will participate in if Iran comes to the table. But in the intervening weeks, Ross has served as State point person on Iran leading Iran policy review and as co-architect of inter-agency policy working in the background, although with no public press briefings so far, etc. And Obama administration decides that it so wants to see if it's possible to get diplomacy going that it ultimately does not want his position to be the excuse or obstacle to keep Iran coming to the table.

So the plan is in advance that around the time of Iran's elections, Ross will be moved from State to NSC, given both an expanded portfolio, but officially no longer be the State point person on Iran, as he has been. He is officially off the Iran engagment front line, even while he's moving to the WH with this part of his strategic portfolio. Full court press to make sure nothing is standing in way of Iran possibly responding to US offer to engage.

Then the Iranian elections happen and Iran comes undone. The move is leaked through Israeli press. And White House and State don't do overly much to deny it but also don't clarify very much either.

But perhaps the audience for what Haaretz printed was indirectly Iran. We're taking Ross off the policy guys, because he's "too associated with Israel," Haaretz is told in what I suspect is a very authorized leak. (If you want Iran to think Ross is being taken off portfolio because it objects to him being allegedly too pro Israel, you wouldn't want to retail that to a US outlet, and Iran is out of the question too.) The underlying message: we're getting rid of this obstacle to engagement. If you'll engage, it will be with non Ross who is "demoted" to a job at the White House doing something vaguely strategic. And it was all set in motion before events of the past few days in Iran, it was planned to coincide with Iran's elections and post-elections US full court push to get engagement going in a big way....