Obama's Israeli-Palestinian agenda on track, but danger signs

Marc Lynch, in FP, here

"The Obama administration has done surprisingly well .... the Israeli team has been shocked to discover that Obama actually meant what he said about the need to stop settlements and has seemingly consolidated broad support in Congress for the position. 

... Clinton, Mitchell and  .... Petraeus added his voice to the mix in a front page interview in the influential Saudi paper al-Hayat, saying that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would improve American security and weaken its adversaries.

As Obama leaves for Saudi Arabia and Egypt, he will thus benefit from the headlines and op-eds in the Arab press featuring his strong stand on the settlements.  His team has done an outstanding job setting the stage, establishing its credibility both with Israeli and Arab audiences and generating real momentum. It should help him get a receptive audience for the much-anticipated address, and allow him to point to deeds matching words (the most frequent Arab criticism of his outreach thus far).  

But the fundamental problems facing any actual progress remain as intense as ever. .... It's hard to see this Israeli government making the necessary moves, so the more realistic goal for now may be to prepare the groundwork for rapid progress after the Netanyahu government falls. 

But what worries me the most right now is a sudden, sharp escalation against Hamas which has created a crisis atmosphere and which seems likely to trigger some kind of violent retaliation.  Israeli air strikes against Gaza have escalated over the last week and a half. ...

There are two ways to read this. First, it might be seen as an attempt to trigger a bloody Hamas retaliation either in Israel or the West Bank which would radicalize the political environment and divert the pressure to move on the peace front. The latter would be a deeply cynical, provocative move and I certainly hope that it isn't the case -- and that if it is, Hamas does not take the bait.

Or second, it might be seen as a coordinated attempt to demonstrate the capabilities and intentions of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank in order to reassure the Americans and Israelis, with an eye towards demonstrating to Hamas the need to somehow adapt to the coming moves towards a peace settlement...."