IRAN: THE START OF THE END GAME IN TEHRAN

EURASIA report, here

"It would appear that Iran’s political crisis is entering the end-game phase. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to slam the door June 19 on any chance of a political compromise. The only way now open for Iran to resolve the presidential election controversy is through a test of strength.

The harsh tone of Ayatollah Khamenei’s sermon suggests that hardliners are prepared to resort to force in order to defend Iran’s theocracy. According to some reports, Revolutionary Guard units will be deployed on June 20 to confront demonstrators,...

While offering unrelenting support for Ahmadinejad’s power grab, the supreme leader also appeared to tacitly offer his chief antagonist, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, an olive branch. He suggest that personal attacks against Rafsanjani concerning corruption had gone too far..... Rafsanjani does not seem inclined to make peace with Ayatollah Khamenei. Rafsanjani has made no public comments since the election confrontation erupted. But, according to a source familiar with Rafsanjani’s political style, when he is silent, he is plotting..... Rafsanjani and others pushing for the creation of a collective religious leadership are said not to be interested in jettisoning Ayatollah Khamenei, but merely in placing checks on his authority. Attempting to oust the supreme leader, they believe, could easily precipitate civil war at this stage....

 It was unclear whether the report was merely a tactic designed to keep hardliners guessing as to when and where the June 20 demonstration would take place, or whether the supreme leader’s sermon was having the desired effect of causing protest supporters to back down. Other reports, meanwhile, had Mousavi issuing a call to attend a protest march that was scheduled to begin at 4 pm on June 20...."