"..If March14 feels emboldened by its mandate & continued US-Saudi support to weaken Hizbullah's, it surely will provoke a crisis..."

Daily Star, here

".... The March 14 victory is a setback for Hizbullah which had hoped that an opposition win would provide a protective seal around its military wing. Contrary to scare-mongering rhetoric from some Israeli and Western officials, Hizbullah had no desire or interest in assuming control of the state if the opposition had triumphed.

Hizbullah's history of participation in Lebanese constitutional politics has always been one of necessity rather than ambition. .....Protecting its weapons, not running the Lebanese state, remains Hizbullah's principal motivation for political participation. If the opposition had won, Hizbullah probably would have preferred to fade into the background, leaving its allies to helm the government on a daily basis.

The party has invested enormous effort and expense in rebuilding and honing its military capabilities since the 2006 war with Israel. The level of recruitment, training and rearming is unprecedented in its 27-year history....

The dilemma facing Hizbullah is that without the one-third blocking share, it is vulnerable to fresh attempts to disarm its military wing. .... what action is Hizbullah - the most powerful political and military entity in the country - prepared to take to persuade March 14 to back down and re-offer the blocking share?

Much depends on the wisdom of March 14. If its leaders feel emboldened by its electoral mandate and continued US and Saudi support to begin maneuvering to weaken Hizbullah's hold over its weapons, it surely will provoke a fresh crisis.