Monday, June 8, 2009

CSIS's Alterman: "I don't think this is anything more than the end of a round, it's not a decisive defeat for anybody,"


"The victory of pro-Western forces in Lebanon's elections is a relief for U.S. officials, sparing them a nettlesome decision on how to deal with a coalition led by Iranian- and Syrian-backed Hezbollah...
"The good news for Washington is that there is no need to adjust policy (in) style or substance," said Bilal Saab, a Lebanon expert with the Brookings Institution think tank who advises the U.S. government on Lebanon.
"There won't be champagne ... but there sure will be sighs of relief," Saab added... U.S. officials, however, said they would not make such decisions until a new government is formed and its policies -- and aid priorities -- are decided.


The victory by the March 14 bloc sets the stage for tough bargaining among all the parties over forming a consensus national government and whether Hezbollah would receive a blocking veto, as it has demanded.
Analysts said Hezbollah was likely to get what it wanted, saying that if it did not it could portend protracted gridlock and possible violence.
"It will be very difficult to move forward without having some kind of consensus government formed, which by extension ... implies that Hezbollah will want a blocking veto. It's my sense that that would be necessary in order to attract them into the government," said Middle East and North Africa analyst Mona Yacoubian of the government-funded United States Institute of Peace think tank.
"If not, I think we are back to (a) sort of dangerous paralysis," Yacoubian added.


Several analysts warned against casting the victory by the March 14 bloc as a massive setback for Iran and Syria.
"You have to be careful not to read too much into this. Iran is not a superman and the United States is not without its own interests and capabilities," said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
"I don't think this is anything more than the end of a round, it's not a decisive defeat for anybody," he added."

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