"Bring it Aoun"

Elias Muhanna, in the National, here

"... If the opposition prevails on June 7, headlines around the world will read “HIZBOLLAH WINS” even though the Shiite party is likely to hold no more seats in parliament than the dozen or so that it occupies today. It will, in fact, be the gains of the Free Patriotic Movement – and the affiliated parties of its Change and Reform Bloc – that will push the opposition into the majority, giving Aoun and his allies control of the largest block of seats in parliament. ......

... This account of political manoeuvring during the heady days of 2005, however, tends to ignore Aoun’s longstanding distaste for the parties who rode the surge of anti-Syrian sentiment into power. The FPM view of the political figures who led March 14 – above all, the Hariri family and Walid Jumblatt – regarded them as little better than the Syrian occupiers themselves. To Aoun and his party, Rafiq Hariri was an unambiguous symbol of the corruption and cronyism of the Syrian era, and the primary beneficiary of the Ta’if Accord, which had redistributed power within both the legislative and executive branches of government at the expense of Lebanese Christians. Relegating his party to serve as just another standard-bearer for the Cedar Revolution led by Hariri’s son Saad proved to be highly disagreeable to Aoun, who considered himself – by virtue of his status as the most popular Christian leader in Lebanon – entitled to lead such a movement..."