Monday, June 8, 2009

"...another sclerotic 'unity' government...?"

OxfAN:
March 14 coalition scores surprise victoryLEBANON: Saad al-Hariri's March 14 coalition has unexpectedly emerged slightly stronger from yesterday's parliamentary election, according to official results just announced. A close race had been expected with Hariri's Sunni/Druze/Christian coalition seen at risk of losing its slight majority to the March 8 coalition of Shia parties (including Hizbollah) and opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun. March 14 has in fact slightly increased its share of the 128-seat parliament to 71, helped by high turnout. With the outcome in most seats already settled through sectarian deals, Aoun's contest against Christian rivals Amin Gemayel and Samir Geagea was the key battleground. The outcome is likely to be another sclerotic 'unity' government, since this is probably the only way of avoiding a repeat of last year's clashes. However, now that March 14 has a strengthened mandate, Hizbollah's renewed demand for veto power may be a source of contention, even though much of its power derives from outside parliament and is thus not directly affected. President Michel Suleiman will play a key role in the government formation negotiations that lie ahead. The main loser appears to be Aoun, while the main winner may turn out to be Suleiman. The conduct and result not only probably reflected reduced regional tensions but could also assist the new US administration's policy objectives, especially if the Iranian presidential election also delivers a favourable result.

No comments: