Monday, May 4, 2009

What is Moqtada al-Sadr doing in Turkey?


Marc Lynch, in FP, here

 "......What's he up to?  

 According to Turkish reports, Sadr met with Prime Minister Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul, along with other Turkish officials.No official statement was released from the meetings with Turkish officials. Al-Zaman reports that an unidentified Turkish official said that they discussed the security situation in Iraq and the evolving Turkish-Iranian relationship. A leading Sadrist said that Sadr went to Turkey from Tehran to follow up on conversations between Turkish officials and Sadrists in Najaf about the future of Iraq (which according to al-Zaman is the first official admission by the Sadrists that he has been in Iran).

 Perhaps as important, Sadr also reportedly met with a large number of Sadrist officials and personalities as well as a delegation of top leaders who came up from Iraq.  He reportedly laid out the political strategy for the movement in the new era.  The assembled Sadrists took the opportunity to discuss political strategies and coalitions for the coming election period in light of the failure of the Shia United Iraqi Alliance. Sadr reportedly spoke of "continued resistance" to occupation, promising not to use weapons against Iraqi soldiers but to continue all forms of resistance.  His spokesman also said that he promised to return soon to Iraq....

What does his public appearance portend for the role of the Sadrists in Iraqi politics in the coming period? Is this a bid for prominence in the upcoming national elections?  How would a Sadrist political revival affect the escalating tension between Maliki and his Shia rivals such as ISCI?  Or is this about security, whether the U.S. withdrawal plan or  the recent uptick in attacks on Shia targets?   Does Sadr's choice of Turkey as the place to re-emerge send any message about the movement's approach to the ever-hotter Kurdish issue?  ..."

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