"What if Hezbollah wins?"

In Elias Muhanna's blog (of Qifa Nabki's fame) here

"......Last week's release of four Lebanese generals held in connection with Hariri's murder by the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon has dampened March 14's hopes of implicating the Syrian regime. More significantly, a new electoral law has redrawn various districts in ways that may threaten the coalition's current margin of just 16 (out of a total 128) seats.

What ..... if the opposition wins -- something akin to the reaction to Hamas's victory in the 2006 Palestinian elections. All this has raised the stakes for the June elections, with many in Lebanon and abroad asking: What will happen if Hezbollah wins?

Interestingly, winning might not be Hezbollah's primary goal. The party's secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, announced last month that his bloc would not seek to increase the size of its own parliamentary share, which currently stands at 14 deputies. This is just one of the steps Hezbollah has taken to insulate itself and its allies from the likely portrayal of an opposition victory as a Hamas-style "takeover" of Lebanon.

The current opposition consists of three blocs....., placing the onus on the Christian bloc to put the opposition over the top. ....

Hezbollah has also repeatedly called for the creation of a national unity government after the elections, promising to grant March 14 a blocking veto in any opposition-led cabinet. Some have even speculated that Hezbollah and its allies would appoint Saad Hariri -- the son of the slain prime minister and one of March 14's principal figures -- to the prime minister's office as a way of ensuring the participation of his bloc within the new government. What these measures suggest is a deliberate attempt by Hezbollah to prevent its opponents in Lebanon and abroad from casting its victory as an Islamist coup against the forces of moderation.

Of course, if the opposition wins, .....Engaging such a government via Hezbollah's parliamentary allies, such as the FPM, and the United States' own European partners, such as France, seems more in line with the rolled-up-sleeves approach of this State Department.

Many think that an opposition victory would embolden Hezbollah against attempts to dismantle its military wing. Others argue that political success might serve as a great moderating influence on the party by raising the stakes of a confrontation with Israel ...."