"Upping the Ante on Israel"

Ignatius on the WaPo, here

"...Binyamin Netanyahu's friends liken him to a good poker player. They explain, for example, that before the Israeli prime minister plays the card marked "Palestinian state," he wants an American commitment that this state will be demilitarized.

But the Israeli leader faced an unusual test in his meeting this week with Barack Obama. The new president is not the poker-player sort of politician: When he decides to do something, he goes straight at it, laying his cards on the table face-up. That direct style is becoming an Obama signature, and it has subtly changed the dynamics of the U.S. dialogue with Israel.

The relationship has traditionally been an intricate political dance, with American presidents weighing how far they can go without offending Israel's supporters in Congress. But that sort of gamesmanship was absent this time: Obama said he wants negotiations for a Palestinian state, soon, and he challenged the Israeli prime minister to get on board....

Obama similarly outmaneuvered Netanyahu in the run-up to the White House meeting. The Israeli leader sought to link progress on the Palestinian issue with a tough U.S. stand against Iran....

The key to this front-loading strategy is Saudi Arabia. But the Saudis warn privately that they won't normalize anything unless Israel makes some dramatic moves -- such as freezing settlements in the occupied West Bank -- that demonstrate its commitment to the 2003 "road map" for peace. To break this logjam, the Obama administration appears ready to lean hard on Netanyahu. Obama has a range of options, starting with criticism of Israel for failing to meet the road map conditions and escalating to tougher measures....

Here's where Netanyahu's poker skills will be tested. The Israeli prime minister wants U.S. and Arab leaders to pledge that any future Palestinian state will be demilitarized -- with no army and no control over its airspace -- before he agrees to negotiate the details of statehood. Netanyahu probably isn't bluffing on this one: Unless a formula can be reached that protects Israeli security, he won't play...."