Risks to stability in Lebanon

March 14 scenario: Cancel the elections! In Reuters, here

"Lebanon, facing a parliamentary election on June 7, has been jolted in the past four years by political killings, a war with Israel, a militant Islamist revolt and its worst internal fighting since the 1975-90 civil war.

Following is a review of threats:

INTERNAL POLITICAL AND SECTARIAN TENSIONS: The security threat posed by rivalry among Lebanese politicians has diminished substantially since May 2008, when their power struggle spilled into violence in Beirut and other parts of the country. A Qatari-mediated deal that produced a "national unity" government has contained tensions, helped by a diplomatic thaw between Saudi Arabia and Syria, whose support for rival factions had made the crisis more volatile. It has been eight months since a Lebanese politician was assassinated.....the conflict has left deep sectarian divisions between followers of the rival leaders. Communal tensions could quickly generate more violence were the domestic political climate to deteriorate, or the regional detente to collapse.

An international tribunal to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri also remains a potential trigger for instability, depending on any indictments issued by the prosecutor.

CONFLICT WITH ISRAEL: Israel and Hezbollah, have not traded fire since a 34-day war in 2006 that was halted by a U.N. Security Council resolution. Both sides sought to avoid another conflict during Israel's Gaza offensive in December and January. ...But any Israeli attack on Iran over its nuclear program could spark another conflict between Israel and Hezbollah,..

MILITANT ISLAMISTS: Lebanese security forces have sought to crack down on al Qaeda-inspired Islamists who have tried to build a presence in Lebanon in the last three years. In 2007, the army put down an insurrection by the al Qaeda-inspired Fatah al-Islam group in a Palestinian refugee camp in the north. But al Qaeda followers have been unable to build an organization as potent as Fatah al-Islam was before its defeat.

PALESTINIAN RIVALRIES: The assassination in March of a senior official in the Palestinian Fatah faction increased tension in Lebanon's already volatile refugee camps. Kamal Medhat's killing was widely seen as linked to an internal Palestinian power struggle. 

PALESTINIAN BASES: Armed Palestinian groups were accused of firing rockets from Lebanon into Israel during its Gaza offensive, highlighting a risk to stability from such factions. Outside the refugee camps, Syrian-backed Palestinian groups operate four bases along the Lebanese-Syrian border and another south of Beirut."