Lebanon's Christians could be 'swing vote' in parliamentary elections

In the Catholic News Service, here

"Sitting at an outdoor cafe on a mild spring afternoon, overlooking the town square of Jezzine, Samaan Dahir felt optimistic about Lebanon's June 7 parliamentary elections.
"The resistance needs to win," said Dahir, referring to the so-called March 8 coalition led by Hezbollah, the Shiite political party credited for liberating South Lebanon from 18 years of Israeli occupation and subsequently helping to rebuild the war-torn region. "Let's give the opposition a chance and see the how they implement their reform programs. I'm definitely for March 8. I'm for change."
Dahir, a Maronite Catholic from Jezzine, is optimistic about the election and is happy that the campaign appears to be giving more of a voice to Christians than in previous years.
Lebanon's two rival coalitions might be led by Sunni and Shiite Muslims, but the country's Christian minority is likely to determine the outcome of the elections. All of the battleground districts are in predominantly Christian towns and neighborhoods, mainly in Beirut and South Lebanon.
The incumbent pro-Western March 14 coalition is led by the Mustaqbal (Future) movement, made up mainly of Sunnis, but also various Christian groups. The opposition, led by Hezbollah, includes the Free Patriotic Movement of Maronite Catholic Michel Aoun, a retired army general.
As the election date approaches, both Muslim-led coalitions are increasingly competing and campaigning for votes from Lebanon's Christians -- a sign the country's Christian minority still has a strong voice in a region increasingly defined by Islamic movements.
"It is a positive thing when any minority communities are focused on, competed over, etc. This is good for democracy and good for protecting against the excesses of majority rule," said Beirut-based political analyst Nicholas Noe. "Of course the Arabs would be stronger if they were unified; of course the Americans would be stronger in the world if they were not split into Democrats and Republicans. But divisions are sometimes the reflection of legitimate differences in interests, and that is what is happening in Lebanon."....