G Gambill in the
JPOst, here".....The conventional wisdom that Syria or Iran can be induced to solve the Hizbullah problem by fiat is also problematic. Coercing or persuading Damascus to cut off Hizbullah's arms supplies may gradually weaken the strategic threat posed by its arsenal, but it won't appreciably degrade the group's capacity to fend off the state and rival militias. Iran has a much more intimate relationship with Hizbullah, but its deeply unpopular clerical regime may not be politically capable of getting tough with the Shi'ite world's most admired public figure even if it were strategically disposed to do so (which it clearly isn't).........
Fortunately, there is no compelling reason for the Obama administration to roll the dice. The deployment of UN peacekeepers in south Lebanon after the 2006 war effectively sealed off Hizbullah's access to the battlefield, while the enormous destruction Israel rained upon Lebanon has rendered unprovoked cross-border attacks politically unthinkable. So long as Hizbullah is actively engaged in the political sphere (and periodically reminded of the apocalypse to follow any armed provocations against Israel), this nearly three-year state of non-belligerency could prove to be remarkably durable."
1 comment:
Gambill writes as if Israel won the war and that Hezbollah has been chastized. Hezbollah is more responsible than the group of fanatics at the helm in Israel. Wishful thinking cannot be solid analysis.
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