"Fayad’s New Government: Implications and Challenges"

WINEP, here

"...Despite Fayad's statement at his swearing-in that "the new government is a transitional [one] until the Palestinian factions reach an agreement in Cairo on a new government," the announcement of a new cabinet amounts to Abbas's recognition that reconciliation talks in Cairo have failed....

Fatah insisted that any new unity government must accept the Quartet conditions of recognizing Israel, respecting past agreements, and renouncing violence and terror. .... Hamas's position, however, remained unchanged ...

On the security issue, Fatah was adamant that future reforms be limited to Gaza, while Hamas insisted on changes in the West Bank. Hamas wants to end the mission of Lt. Gen. Keith Dayton, U.S. security coordinator for Israel and the PA, of rebuilding security forces in the West Bank, while Abbas seeks to expand the program to Gaza. In the last round of talks, Egypt proposed a joint force of 15,000 men from Hamas and Fatah under Cairo's supervision ....Hamas agreed only to a joint force of 300 men to work at Rafah crossing. Majed Faraj, head of the military intelligence service, said, "[Hamas] wants to share with Fatah in ruling the West Bank, while it insists on ruling Gaza alone."

Abbas's Firm Stance against Hamas

Abbas wants to make clear before his planned May 28 meeting with President Barack Obama that he is fully committed to past agreements, especially the Roadmap. By reappointing Fayad, who enjoys considerable U.S. trust and confidence... is the guarantor of continuing international aid to the PA that will sustain its security sector, civil administration, and economic reforms....

The Challenges Ahead

• A faction within Fatah headed by Ahmed Qurei and supported by most members of the Fatah Central Committee and the Fatah bloc in the PLC argues that a government headed by a non-Fatah personality will weaken the party's position in the PA institutions..... This faction within Fatah may try to orchestrate major protests against the new cabinet. .....
• The Abbas-Fayad coalition also failed to convince the Palestinian Popular Front, the Palestinian People's Party, and the Palestinian National Initiative to join the new cabinet since they believe that forming the government before the end of talks with Hamas "will deepen the division among the Palestinians."
• Abbas and Fayad also have their own differences ...

Unfortunately, even if Abbas is able to overcome all of these obstacles, he is hardly out of the woods. The Palestinian elections are now scheduled for January 2010, and neither Abbas nor the United States has publicly articulated whether and how they plan to move forward if Hamas should once again emerge victorious. ...."