Elliot Abrams: "Mr. Netanyahu will have been told that Mr. Obama is weak & naive, won't act against Iran & doesn't understand the way the world works"

In the WSJ, here

"First impressions matter. Experts say we size up new people in somewhere between 30 seconds and two minutes. So how will the first 30 seconds, and the rest of the meeting, go when President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sit down together on May 18?

The first thing to remember is that this meeting is far more important for Mr. Netanyahu than for Mr. Obama; Mr. Netanyahu has a lot more at stake. ....

Mr. Netanyahu has to care about forging a personal relationship with Mr. Obama, but Mr. Obama may feel he doesn't need Mr. Netanyahu as a pal. Mr. Obama appears to have enormous faith in his own personal charm (and why not? Look where it's gotten him) but we do not yet know when he pours it on. Just how much do personal relations with foreign leaders matter to him? For George W. Bush, they mattered a lot: His negative view of Gerhard Schroeder and Jacques Chirac and his trust in Ariel Sharon changed U.S. foreign policy...

Mr. Netanyahu will have been told that Mr. Obama is weak and naive, won't act against Iran and doesn't understand the way the world works. Mr. Obama will have been told that Mr. Netanyahu is a "right winger" (and therefore bad by definition) who is tricky and untrustworthy and needs to be pushed hard if there's to be "progress toward peace." ....

It's unlikely that we'll know quickly whether they hit it off. The Israelis will almost certainly make this claim within seconds after the meeting ends, and will adduce every possible piece of evidence. Mr. Obama smiled; he put his arm on Mr. Netanyahu's shoulder; his body language was friendly; his tie had positive colors.

The White House leaks will be more interesting, for the staff may want to keep Mr. Netanyahu nervous; we'll have to watch what favored journalists are told about the chemistry in the days after the visit. ...

And then there is substance. Messrs. Netanyahu and Obama have a lot to talk about, from Palestinians to Syria to the United Nations, but for Mr. Netanyahu -- as for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, the president will soon find out -- the top item is Iran. ....

Even if they assume Iran would not "nuke" Israel (out of fear that a counterstrike would end this brief period of growing Shia ascendancy in the Islamic world), Israelis fear what Iranian possession of a nuke would do to the morale of their society.... Can such a place attract immigrants, or deter brain drain? Does it seem like a place with a real future? Can the children of Holocaust survivors sit around and take a chance on Iran?

Mr. Netanyahu will tell the president that the answer is no; Iran can't be allowed to have the bomb. He will urge Mr. Obama to adopt a far tougher program of economic sanctions than now exists, and accept the use of force as a last resort. This portion of the meeting will be fateful. In June 1961, when John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev met in Vienna two months after the Bay of Pigs fiasco, the Soviet leader concluded that Mr. Kennedy was a pushover. Just over two months later Mr. Khrushchev gave the go-ahead for building the Berlin Wall, and just over a year later he was putting missiles into Cuba. Mr. Khrushchev had decided that Mr. Kennedy was "too intelligent and too weak." If that's the assessment Mr. Netanyahu makes -- that Mr. Obama is plenty smart, but will never risk confronting Iran -- he may resolve that an Israeli strike on Iran is unavoidable.

.... Israel's surprise attack on the secret Syrian nuclear reactor at al-Kibar in 2007 was gutsy and beautifully done, but far simpler than an attack on Iran -- which is much farther away and presents multiple targets. Israel must also assess how Iran, and its agents in Hezbollah, would react to such an attack. Syria, like Iraq after Israel hit the Osirak reactor in 1981, did not react by trying to strike Israel; indeed Syria even hid the fact of the bombing, trying to save face. Iran might do likewise, .....

On the "peace process," Mr. Obama will want progress toward a negotiated settlement, while Mr. Netanyahu will offer practical actions........But it seemed clear that security comes first, and that a final status agreement is not in the cards right now.

Mr. Mitchell seems to understand all of this, wily pol that he is -- and impressed as he is by the Arab preoccupation with Iran rather than with the Palestinians. ... a critical struggle under way right now in the Middle East, but it is not between Israelis and Palestinians; it is the people aligned with us -- including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Palestinian Authority, Israel and the United Arab Emirates -- against Iran, Qatar, Syria, Hezbollah and the Palestinian rejectionist groups. Mr. Netanyahu will tell the president this, but no one knows if the president will buy it -- at least until he consults with those Arab leaders and hears the same thing....

The physical details of the meetings will be carefully noted by both sides as well. Who attends, or perhaps more importantly, who is left out? Is Mr. Mitchell there? Dennis Ross, the new special adviser on Iran? Who from the White House staff accompanies National Security Adviser Jim Jones? Who speaks up, and who stays silent? To whom does the president turn for advice or information? And on the other side, who is with Mr. Netanyahu and whom does he appear to trust? How is he treated? Does he get lunch? And if so, in the West Wing, or "at home" in the East Wing residence? Or does he just get a plain-vanilla meeting in the Oval Office, and go away hungry?...

The worst combination for American Jews would be a popular Democrat in the White House clashing with a Likud prime minister -- so nerves are on edge. American Jews will be pained by any confrontation between the two men, and if one begins to develop they will seek to keep it quiet and to defuse it..."