WINEP: "...Contrary to Imad Moustapha's predictions, no such policy shift has taken place... (Mitchell not Damascus bound?)"

WINEP is after Imad Mustapha, Sami Moubayed & al...... Tabler at WINEP, here

".... George Mitchell ..... Conspicuously absent from his itinerary is Damascus. ..... the exclusion of Damascus from the envoy's agenda shows that the Obama administration continues to pursue cautious and critical engagement with the regime of Syrian president Bashar al-Asad.

The Syrian-U.S. Expectations Gap
Following the November 2006 Iraq Study Group's recommendation to engage Syria and Iran, the Asad regime hired the British public relations firm Bell Pottinger to develop a Syrian public relations strategy targeting the international community. In January 2007 Abdulsalam Haykal -- a businessman close to the Syrian regime -- and Syrian historian and political commentator Sami Moubayed launched Forward Magazine (Syria), a monthly English-language glossy periodical that, according to its website, looks at "the bright side of things." ...

In the wake of U.S. speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's April 2007 visit to Damascus, a stark gap in expectations emerged between Damascus and Washington. The Asad regime demanded talks on "the horizon of issues" and a "package deal" on "comprehensive peace" that would solve some bilateral issues at the expense of others. In Washington, however, policymakers sought progress on all issues, most notably Syria's support for terrorism, efforts to undermine Lebanon's sovereignty, an investigation into the murder of former Lebanese premier Rafik al-Hariri, and increasing evidence of extensive Syrian facilitation of foreign fighters into Iraq. Many also doubted that the Bush administration or its successor would conduct immediate high-profile engagement with Damascus, pointing to the poor track record of U.S. officials engaging Asad and Damascus's new and unexpected maximalist demands for engagement.

Not only did Syria's expectations remain unrealistically high, but it was clear Damascus anticipated an early visit from the next U.S. president as well. .....Unexpected, however, were further demands that Washington lift U.S. sanctions on Syria, recognize "that no problems can be solved in the Middle East without Syria," and "help Syria combat Islamic fundamentalism."
No Grand Gestures
Following Obama's inauguration .... instead of the kind of grand gesture Syria wanted, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton dispatched Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Jeffrey Feltman on February 26 for talks with Moustapha.....Regime spokesmen immediately attacked Feltman for using the "language of the neocons." Following the meeting, however, both sides labeled
the talks "constructive," leading to another round of discussions in Damascus on March 7 between Feltman and National Security Council Middle East director Daniel Shapiro and Syrian foreign minister Walid Mouallem. Following the talks, Feltman announced that both sides had found "a lot of common ground" and that instead of setting "benchmarks" for Damascus, each side was watching the future "choices" of the other.
Two days later, Asad stepped into the fray. In the ensuing twenty-three days, he gave an unprecedented six interviews to international media. But rather than dealing with the issues discussed during Feltman and Shapiro's visit, Asad targeted Israel, offering it only a cold peace, blaming outgoing Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert for the failure of recent indirect Syrian-Israeli negotiations, and refusing to talk about cutting ties with Hizballah, Hamas, and Tehran....Then, in his first-ever email interview with an American journalist, Asad told the New Yorker's Sy Hersh that he not only sought U.S. mediation with Israel, he also wanted direct contact with President Obama.
In the latest installment of the campaign, Moustapha told the Washington Times editorial board on April 7 that the United States had signaled a sea change in is relations with Syria, claiming that relations with Washington are suddenly so amicable that U.S. officials said, "We will never ask you to kick [Hamas Politburo leader] Khaled Meshaal out of Damascus." He also predicted Mitchell would soon visit the Syrian capital.
Washington's Cautious and Critical Approach
Contrary to Moustapha's predictions, no such policy shift has taken place. Instead, Washington continues to utilize a step-by-step pragmatic approach to engaging Damascus. Unlike most other countries on the U.S. List of State Sponsors of Terrorism, the United States and Syria have diplomatic relations and functioning embassies. Following the Feltman-Shapiro meeting, Washington is now watching Damascus's choices on the issues discussed. Thus far there has been some diplomatic motion on Lebanon and Iraq. On March 24, Syria officially appointed its first-ever ambassador to Lebanon (who has yet to be posted). Syria's foreign minister, Mouallem, visited Baghdad the following day for talks on border security and committed Syria to "whatever help is necessary" for a successful withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq. Washington is now waiting for Syria to follow through on both commitments. On the ground in Damascus, Syria has allowed the reopening of the American Language Center, an English-language institute affiliated with the embassy that was closed along with the embassy's cultural center and the American School following the October 29 U.S. raid on terrorist bases near the eastern Syrian town of Mouallem. ......Last, but not least, Damascus has yet to show its much-trumpeted ability to rein in weapons smuggling to Hamas (Tabler's & Mubarak's choice!) or to bring it into a Palestinian unity government with Fatah.
Dilemmas Reveal Intentions
With Damascus unfortunately more interested in public relations than addressing outstanding bilateral issues, Washington's step-by-step approach seems set to continue. In the short term, a key test to see if Damascus is capable of cooperating with Washington will be Lebanon's June 7 parliamentary elections, where U.S. policymakers are watching closely to see if the poll will take place without Syrian interference or assassinations. Concerning Iraq, Washington is waiting to see if Syria will follow through on its promises to stop the flow of jihadi fighters across its borders. ......Only when this is accomplished can grand presidential gestures to Damascus be a viable option in Washington's competitive policy environment. "