David Schenker at the WINEP, here"...There are some tentative indications that March 14's strategy might bear fruit. In the crucial district of Metn, an alliance appears to have been struck between the March 14-affilated Phalange Party and longtime political operator Michel Murr. Murr backs the idea of a centrist bloc, but his list is closely affiliated with March 14, effectively undermining opposition inroads in Metn and other districts. Importantly, Murr is also expected to deliver a significant portion of the Tashnaq constituency to March 14.
Since then, Aoun has been narrowly focused on attacking President Suleiman, Michel Murr, the idea of a centrist bloc, and the Maronite patriarch who has come out strongly in the bloc's favor. Aoun has also spent time fending off rumors that he might be excommunicated for allegedly slandering Lebanese patriarch Nasrallah Sfair, who earlier this month stated that it would be a "historic mistake" if March 8 won a majority in parliament.
For Washington, the loss of Lebanon would represent a significant setback on many fronts. In the aftermath of Britain's recent ill-advised decision to diplomatically engage Hizballah, the prospect of the organization making increased inroads into Europe would be particularly troubling. At the same time, the region would perceive the reversal of the Cedar Revolution as a victory for Tehran and Damascus and a defeat for Washington -- a dynamic that could further complicate U.S. efforts to end Iran's nuclear program and convince Syria to modify its unhelpful policies. Assuredly, a Hizballah government in Beirut would also undermine the bilateral relationship with Washington.
Fortunately, while this scenario is troubling, it is far from ordained. Against all odds, with three months to go, March 14 stands a decent chance of squeaking out another narrow victory. In the sensitive context of Lebanese elections, the most productive action Washington can take is to help guarantee a level playing field. While little can be done to stem Tehran's considerable funding for Hizballah, the Obama administration can curtail, if not prevent, some of the more egregious foreign interference at the polls. In this regard, it is essential that Washington take full advantage of its renewed diplomatic engagement with Syria to ensure that its new interlocutors in Damascus do not meddle in the elections..."
1 comment:
The weekend could not be complete without an imbecility by Schenker Maximus Idioticus (SMI)! How can M14 strategy bear fruit with the 'centrist' bloc including Murr and the Phalanges? Without blinking SMI blurts that the bloc's closeness to M14 may be counterproductive! Which is it O SMI?
On the other hand, the threat of excommuniocation by a discredited Patriarch is as credible as SMI's predictions. For safety, take the opposite view and you will be probably right.
Finally, Murr WILL NOT DELIVER THE TACHNAK TO THE PHALANGES-MURR bloc. Tachnak will vote for Murr ALONE AND FOR THE WHOLE LIST OF MICHEL AOUN.
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