US-Syria: Slow and Opaque Engagement

Former Executive Director of AIPAC, Tom Dine (back from Damas) here at the Mideast Pulse

"...Following the publicized visit by two important Obama Administration foreign policy officials to Damascus this weekend, influentials in the Syrian capital eagerly expressed enthusiasm at what was widely interpreted as a "breakthrough" and a "victory" in the bilateral relationship.

...Distancing and disengagement as policies do not end quickly as witnessed by President Bashar al-Assad harsh remarks two days after the official Americans departed. He startled Washington, by linking directly an agreement between the Palestine and Israel to one between Syria and Israel, meaning there would be no peace until the Palestinian issue is resolved first. An agreement is only a document and doesn't mean trade or normal relations, he said. These were new words injected into one of several crucial challenges facing the two sides. Indeed, in normalizing Syrian-US relations, I believe keeping expectations in check is realistic advice; much hard work and patience lie ahead as the road of goodwill is paved.

In a larger context, the study and review of diplomatic engagement is now underway by the Obama Administration toward six strained international situations bequeathed by Bush and company, two-thirds of them in an extended Middle East-Sudan, Iran, Syria, and Palestine, ....

.... regarding Iran, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton .....confronted by Arab and other foreign ministers that Iran as a nuclear power and supporter of terror groups is hot-topic number one in the region.

Some American foreign policy analysts are calling for the Obama Administration to engage Iran, Syria, and Israel-Palestine full-speed ahead. ...

Syria is a case in point. Yes, Syria is a pivotal player in the region but, as the Syrian leadership is making clear to the Americans, disengagement cannot be overturned and upgraded overnight. .....What can be exclaimed is that the end of American isolation of Syria has commenced. But until major adjustments and changes in behavior are made by Syria, according to Administration officials, a new policy day in the bilateral sphere will not begin.

We are thus only at the early talks phase. Talks are not a substitute for substantive give-and-take in the international arena. From the American perspective, officials are asking these questions: ... Will Syria control and secure its borders not only with Iraq but also with Lebanon. Will Syria change its supportive arrangements toward Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, ... Will Syria allow for a free and fair forthcoming election in Lebanon? How will Syria participate or not in the U.N.-sponsored Tribunal investigating the death of Lebanon's Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri? What are Syria's nuclear intentions; is it pursuing a nuclear option or was that last year's news?

Can Syria and Israel at long last bring to a mutually satisfactory conclusion all of the Golan Heights territory for a full peace? Then there is the anxiety-creating issue of Iran...

Perhaps by the end of 2009 we will know answers..."