Wednesday, February 11, 2009

“What if Hizbullah Wins?”

Qifa Nabki writes here
"...If March 8th wins 65 seats or more, it will be able to choose the prime minister, although it is not clear to what degree March 14th will be able to indirectly influence the choice, given that it represents a majority of Lebanese Sunnis (for whom the PM serves as a kind of de facto president). The choice of PM will set the tone for everything that follows. If an old-guard figure like Omar Karami is chosen, this may encourage the Future Movement and its allies to adopt a recalcitrant stance vis-à-vis the new government, claiming it as a return to the days when Syria controlled Lebanon. They may choose to boycott the new cabinet (as Walid Jumblatt has already threatened to do), making it difficult for the new PM to form a national unity government. In doing so, March 14th would be taking a page from Hizbullah’s playbook,....
How will the United States and Europe deal with a government “led” by Hizbullah? ....
At the end of the day, a Hizbullah victory potentially represents an important step toward the eventual demilitarization and nationalization of the party.."

No comments: