Nelson Report: "A Clinton trip to Afgh/Pak "first" was not attractive, .. no one in their right mind wants to rain on Hollbrooke's parade"

Excerpts: (Via W7P)

"...Sec. State Clinton's Asia trip main policy outcome is likely to be whether she can establish herself, and State, as the manager of US-China relations.Certainly Dep Sec Steinberg, A/S EAP Campbell, know the issues, have the experience to back her up, but Campbell not yet "officially" nominated, much less confirmed. And nothing (yet) on Ambassadors to China, Japan.

White House meeting tomorrow (Wed.) set to discuss how to handle the US-China SED, previously run by Treasury...stay tuned. As so often before, N. Korea seems not content to let the Obama Administration organize itself and think things through on dealing with Pyongyang.

Whether what smells like a coming missile test represents a strategic threat, or just another exclamation point, depends on what missile, aimed where, how far...and why.

Regardless, Obama is being forced to focus on how to bridge the disconnects between US, China, ROK and Japan principal "security" concerns. Everyone worries about nukes, but what really scares China and the ROK is instability on the ground.

So the US must bridge the gap between the "policy" of no NK nuke acceptable, and a "strategy" with a realistic chance to achieve that. IT MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE.

Is "delusion" defined as "a strategy based on hope?" Is there NO hope of effective leverage? Sobering KEI/Atlantic Council discussion today. ....

A not entirely generous interpretation of Clinton's trip plan is that it will have the additional virtue, for her, of forcing the issue in deciding who will be the lead player, on what, in Asia.Clinton's trip will be an enormous relief to Japan, which has been trying to get the White House to agree to a trip here by Prime Minister Aso, and it should serve as a useful bulwark in reassuring S. Korea that Obama's concerns about KORUS not-with-standing, he fully grasps the importance of the economic and security alliance, and intends to stand tall with the ROK in the face of increased DPRK bullying. ...It will be "Clinton in China" gathering the most attention, of course, and you have to suspect that was a key factor in her decision to "change precedent" and have her first official trip to Asia, rather than the "traditional" Secretary of State maiden voyages (please pardon the expression) to Europe and/or the Middle East.

But Candidate Obama pretty much did the Euro thing beyond anyone's ability to improve, and Clinton herself, with Obama, has already dispatched Special Envoy George Mitchell to the Middle East.

A trip to Afghanistan/Pakistan "first" clearly was not attractive, and anyhow, no one in their right mind wants to rain on Special Envoy Dick Holbrooke's parade.

So...North Asia is attractive for a multiplicity of reasons, including Clinton's desire to stamp her personal involvement on a region and set of issues which, so far, at least, are not the purview of aSpecial Envoy. ...

Deputy Secretary Jim Steinberg is assumed by observers to be primed, and poised, to take a lead role in helping on China policy, but obviously, with Clinton out of the building, it's the job of the Deputy to be "in".

Perhaps her most important policy pronouncements, beyond putting some practical discussion into implementing the Obama/Hu telephone commitments, is what she will have to say in Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul about dealing with N. Korea. And that may, in turn, be determined by whether the DPRK fires off a missile or two in the meantime... ..."