MEPGS: "Hazem Chehabi approach behind Berman's trip to Syria?"

With Middle East Special Envoy George Mitchell set to returnto the region next week and Special Representative Richard Holbrooke (the slightly different titles apparently denote Mitchell's direct link to the President while Holbrooke works through the Secretary of State) now in Kabul, the Administration would appear to be off to an active start in its plans to pursue key regional objectives enunciated by President Obama. However, the decision to send 17,000 US troops to Afghanistan as the 60 day policy review was just getting underway and to send Mitchell back out to the region for the second time, even before Israelis are able to form a new government, has some long time observers wondering whether policy is being completely thought through.

Equally frustrating, especially to the Israelis who consider time to be of the essence, is the seemingly endless hours being spent on the Administration's Iran policy review. Participants include holdovers such as acting Assistant Secretary of State for the Near East, Jeff Feltman as well as new appointees such as arms control specialist Gary Samore from the National Security Council staff and Dennis Ross, who still operates out of the Transition office at the State Department. However, at the same time, senior level US officials, including President Obama, continue to repeat publicly their desire to open a new chapter in US-Iranian relations. "So far we get words of overture from the Administration," says one European diplomat. "And the Iranians respond by sending a rocket into orbit." [A reference to Iran's first orbital satellite launching earlier this month].

There are even some physical signs that the Administration has not "gotten its act together," says one veteran State Department official (whose bureau has been shut out of the Iran policy review). This official notes that the offices for both Holbrooke and Mitchell are located in what he calls, "The least worst piece of `real estate' in the [State Department] building." -- Next door to each other on the first floor leading to the employees cafeteria. More important, of course, is the clear articulation and quick implementation of Administration goals in the region. Arab and European diplomats already express frustration with Mitchell's lack of new ideas. One Arab Ambassador noted how Mitchell seemed more determined in conversations while in the region than when he returned. A well- placed European diplomat complained that Mitchell's deputy, David Hale, "...used the same tired old language" to describe Administration efforts to rein in Israeli plans to expand settlement activity in the West Bank [Although some Administration insiders say that Mitchell is privately seething over the recent announcement that the Israeli government plans tobuild an additional 2,500 units to existing settlements in the West Bank].

With the likelihood of Benjamin ("Bibi") Netanyahu presiding over a center/right coalition government, the prospects for smooth US-Israel relations do not seem promising. Netanyahu had more than a few encounters during his last tenure in office that left Clinton Administration officials, including the President frustrated and angry. This time around, there is the added element of Iran being close to the point of no return in its quest to become a nuclear power. Netanyahu, says one US official who knows him well, not only believes that a nuclear armed Iran is an existential threat to Israel but would be willing to launch a strike. "Bibi thinks the Iranians are irrational. He believes they are willing to trade [the destruction of] Teheran, Isfahan and Tabriz for [the destruction of] Tel Aviv."

Some well placed Israelis are certain that Netanyahu will not hold back these strong views even during his first official meeting with President Obama [which could come as soon as the beginning of April]. "Bibi will explain Israeli defense doctrine," predicts one well placed source. Put succinctly it amounts to, "Israel defends itself," says this official. If asked about Israeli intentions, Netanyahu will say that there is no more than twelve months before Iran "crosses the threshold." For Israel, the threshold is Iran's mastery of nuclear technology, not the ability to "weaponize." With the International Atomic Energy Agency now saying that the Iranians have 5500 centrifuges up and running and the next National Intelligence Estimate likely to report that Iran no longer is "facing difficulties" in its enrichment program, the Israelis saythey will no longer accept that Iran is "years away" from becoming an existential threat.

Both Secretary of State Clinton and her top Iran advisor, Ross [whose title seems to be a work in progress, the latest being "Senior Advisor for Gulf Security and Southwest Asia] are known to be hawkish regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions. They appear to favor a comprehensive strategy that incorporates economic, political and military pressure on Iran, while holding out the prospect of improved US relations, if Teheran backs off its enrichment drive. Even European and Arab diplomats say that unless strong pressure is exerted soon the Iranians will conclude that there is no likelihood of US military action and therefore no need for a "grand bargain." As one veteran Arab
analyst puts it, "The mullahs thrive on tension with the US. It generates popular support for the regime." Absent a major economic squeeze, Arab, Israeli and European diplomats alike concludethere will be no way to deter Iran from its present course.

Part of the effort, some argue, should be an outreach to Syria. But few veteran analysts in or out of government see an effective way to pry Syria from Iran's embrace as long as Teheran is perceived to be gaining strength in the region. So far, say US officials, the outreach has been interpreted by the Syrians as a sign of weakness. And US officials have concluded that Syria pressed Damascus-based Hamas leaders to hold out during the recent Israeli invasion of Gaza. Still, although Mitchell is pointedly avoiding a Damascus stopover during next week's visit to the region, many veteran observers believe it is only a matter of time before he engages the Syrians. "Look the President is going to try everything he promised during the campaign," says one US official. "If an outreach program doesn't work, we will have to consider other options."

Meanwhile, Congressional leaders are already on the road to Damascus. Howard Berman (D-CA), Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, decided to schedule a visit there after being approached by Hazem Chehabi, the son of the former commander of Syria's armed forces, who now lives in California. Pro-western Lebanese politicians let the State Department know they were unhappy with the trip and a similar one proposed by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry. To help assuage their fears and bolster their political prospects, US officialshave promised to see that delivery of American weapons to the Lebanese Armed Forces takes place before parliamentary elections to be held in June.