WINEP's Shencker is quite unhappy with European overtures towards Damascus. He recommends that Washington "...work with the EU to ensure that the agreement is not a diplomatic and economic gift to Syria, but rather a verifiable bilateral deal in which Damascus only receives benefits in exchange for meeting its obligations." He tries, yet again, to salvage what he can .... Someone should point out to him: The Train Has Left The Station! WINEP, here
"...Modest Syrian Steps Prompt Dramatic EU ShiftWhat prompted the EU's recent reassessment is not entirely clear; the Hariri investigation is months away from conclusion, and the international tribunal will not be operational before spring 2009. To be sure, Europe was impressed this past May by the announcement of Israeli-Syrian (indirect) negotiations in Turkey and by Damascus's adoption of a seemingly more productive stance vis-a-vis Lebanon, symbolized by the election later that month of Michel Suleiman as president.
More recently, Paris expressed delight with Syria's pledge in July 2008 to open an embassy in Beirut. In the aftermath of these developments, senior-level diplomatic exchanges between Europe and Syria -- largely frozen since 2005 -- resumed full force. Despite the fanfare with which these developments were received, Syria's steps were rather modest. Although Damascus deferred a political crisis in Beirut by allowing the election of a Lebanese chief executive, President Suleiman, who was appointed chief of staff of the Lebanese Armed Forces by Syria in 1998, is widely viewed as sympathetic toward Syria. Likewise, Syrian president Bashar al-Asad's commitment to open an embassy in Beirut remains only a pledge -- and a symbolic gesture at best. Damascus is already hedging on follow-through; in early December, Syrian foreign minister Walid Mouallem said the appointment of an ambassador "would take place gradually."Few in Europe are likely to believe that the embassy's establishment will constitute recognition of Lebanese sovereignty. And many in Lebanon fear a new embassy would represent the reestablishment of Anjar, the notorious former home of Syria's viceroy in Lebanon..."
1 comment:
It is a real delight to see the 'trepidations' of the Magnus Expert on Lebanon, Mr. Schenker, who has the dubious all time record of being wrong in his 'assessment' of Lebanese matters. In fact, if one needs to have an idea of what is going on, or what may be coming, please do read Schenker and take the opposite view. You will be, more often than not, quite on the mark!
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