Giora Eiland former national security adviser to Sharon and Olmert , and Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of the IDF's intelligence research division .. and others in the Tel Aviv's Institute for National Security Studies journal, here, via Helena Cobban.
"...Neither Eiland nor Kuperwasser can provide a convincing answer to the question, "Yes, but then what?" regarding all their arguments about how (not whether) to fight another war against Lebanon.In his piece, Eiland makes a couple of arguments. He notes that Hizbullah has become stronger within the Lebanese state than it was at the time of the 33-day war. (Note, though, that he completely fails to explain that it was precisely the ferocity of the assaults Israel made on Lebanon during that war that spurred, that outcome...) So he concludes from that that, to fatally weaken Hizbullah it will be necessary to damage the Lebanese state a lot, too.....
"The US sanctioned an Israeli operation against Hamas," he writes,but had a hard time accepting the operation as Israel planned it – an operation against the Palestinian Authority. The US at first demanded that Israel leave all West Bank cities (area A) within forty-eight hours. Notable Israeli steadfastness maintained that this time it was impossible to return to the familiar rules of the game whereby only the terrorists are targeted, and the sponsors (the Palestinian Authority) remain immune. Israel’s firmness, which stemmed from a lack of other options, was successful. Israel had to concede on one matter only, stopping the siege of the muq’ata in Ramallah, home to Arafat at the time. On the other hand, the new policy (Israeli control over all Palestinian areas) was well received and commended by the international community.
So, he writes, it would probably be similar with an attack on Lebanon. The "west" might complain a bit at first... but "Israeli firmness" in pursuing its own goals would win the day and even become "well received and commended" by the international community......All Kuperwasser tells us about the political-strategic goal to be sought through this operation is "examination of the possibility of establishing a different arrangement with regard to relations between Israel and Lebanon in general and the Shiite community in particular." Whatever that means. May 17 agreement, anyone?And then what?
Israel has a failed state on its northern border and substantial portions of the international community up in arms... And that's going to "solve" your Hizbullah problem, how?..."
No comments:
Post a Comment