Brookings report by Suzanne Maloney and (CFR's) Ray Takeyh, in pdf. here ....and this 'memorable' moment "at the American Enterprise Institute on December 2, when John Bolton read 'em and wept. There is, he said, no way to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. His conclusion, stunning in its finality: 'We are going to have to deal with a nuclear Iran.' ...Bolton is folding his cards. 'Iran's going to get nuclear weapons,' said Bolton, to an audience at AEI that seemed shocked into silence. 'We have lost this race.', (Video, here) , all via W&P
Maloney: "...The Obama administration may be tempted to take the easy way out by offering merely new rhetoric and modest refinements to the carrot-and stick approach that has failed its five predecessors. This would be a mistake. Today, to deal effectively with a rising Iran, the United States must embark on a far deeper reevaluation of its strategy and launch a comprehensive diplomatic initiative to attempt to engage its most enduring Middle Eastern foe.
After a consideration of the range of possible policy options, including regime change, military strikes, containment, and engagement, this chapter outlines a model of engagement that acknowledges Iran’s influence while seeking to constrain and redirect it. Specifically, this approach calls for
- Implementing multitrack, delinked negotiations on each of the most critical issues at stake: the restoration of diplomatic relationships, the nuclear issue, security in the Persian Gulf and Iraq, and broader regional issues.
- Appointing a special coordinator for Iran policy, situated within the Department of State, who would coordinate the diplomatic effort.
- Normalizing low-level diplomatic relations so that the U.S. government can gain familiarity with Iranian officials and achieve a better understanding of Iranian political dynamics. American officials are currently forbidden from direct contact with their Iranian counterparts, a stipulation that further degrades the already limited capacity of the U.S. government to interpret Iran.
- Treating the Iranian state as a unitary actor rather than endeavoring to play its contending factions against one another. Iran’s internal partisan skirmishes often appear ripe for creative diplomacy, but any new approach to Iran must be grounded in the recognition that no movement on the core issues of interest to the United States will be possible without the approval of Iran’s supreme leader.
- Identifying effective mediators who can serve to build bridges between the administration and the inner circles of the supreme leader and the president of Iran.
- Revamping the recently established U.S. democracy initiative to mitigate the perception of American interference by focusing on programs that encourage people-to-people exchanges.
- Understanding that the process of engaging Iran will be protracted, arduous, and subject to shifts in Iran’s internal dynamics and regional context. To achieve and maintain momentum, the incoming administration will have to seize openings, manage crises, and navigate carefully through both the American domestic debate as well as the interests and concerns of U.S. allies. .."
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