Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Strategic case for U.S.-Iran rapprochement

"...An Iranian-American rapprochement, by contrast, would help preserve European-American relations as well as allow the United States to benefit from the Russian-Iranian differences that would arise from this. But would Iran moderate its behavior toward Israel for the sake of rapprochement with the United States, especially if an Iranian-European rapprochement seems likely even if Iranian-American hostility remains?
There is reason to believe that it would. For while Europe can provide Iran with much needed cash, Europe is neither willing nor able to provide Iran with help on its security problems to the extent that America can. And Iran has some very serious security problems,
including:
1.an increasingly active Sunni opposition inside Iran to the Shi’a government there;
2.the likelihood that a resurgent Taliban will renew its hostility toward Iran, which it actively pursued prior to 9/11;
3.the possible spillover into Iran from the renewed sectarian conflict in Iraq that may well result as the American presence there declines; and
4.the growing Russian hostility toward Iran that can be expected to result from Tehran competing with it as a gas exporter as well as pipeline route for Azeri and Turkmen gas. Tehran has little incentive to change its behavior toward Israel if Iranian-American hostility continues at a time when American intervention in Iran appears highly unlikely. By contrast, the United States has a far better chance of moderating Iranian behavior toward Israel as a condition for providing Tehran with assistance against the very real threats Iran faces than if the United States remains hostile toward Iran..."

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

It seems all the MESH folks are living in a fantasy world.

1, 2 and 3 are just dumb - look at population numbers and its easy to see why.
BTW- what could the U.S. provide that Iran can not in any of those "threats" were real?

4 is a cold war fantasy. An OPEC-like gas oligopoly to keep prices in range makes economic sense for buyers and sellers. Russia is too sane to scrap the perspective to bring Iran into such a fold.

And the U.S. provides assistance against real threats coming from the U.S.?

What are these folks smoking? Can I have some of that stuff?

Anonymous said...

Any hint if Mark N. Katz is related to islamophobe SITE front-face Rita Katz?