“Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq - September 2008” quarterly report

DOD Report to Congress: "Measuring Stability & Security in Iraq", full report, here

"...Iranian Influence

Since 2003, Tehran has invested heavily to gain and maintain influence at all levels and across multiple sectors of the GoI. Despite longstanding ties between Iran and some members of the GoI, Tehran’s influence campaign is beginning to strain that relationship due to a rising perception that Iran poses a significant threat to Iraqi sovereignty. The primary source of tension between the governments is Tehran’s continued support to Shi’a militia groups fomenting instability. Although Iran’s leadership publicly proclaimed it stopped providing lethal aid to Shi’a militants, the evidence does not support their claim. Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) operations in Basrah, Sadr City, and Amarah yielded evidence that calls into question the Government of Iran’s sincerity and commitment to that proclamation. Even more problematic is the aid and refuge Iran is now providing to JAM Special Group elements that fled during ISF operations to sanctuary in Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – Qods Force training camps in Iran. Iranian support remains a principle reason for continued violence.

Syrian Influence

Although relations between Syria and Iraq started to improve in late 2007, tension over the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq and the increasing financial burden Iraqi refugees place on Syrian society are significant hurdles that prevent more robust political, economic, and diplomatic relations between the two governments. Syria remains the primary facilitation gateway for foreign terrorists moving into Iraq. The GoI has implored Syria to do more to stop the flow of foreign terrorists but is not yet satisfied with Syria’s level of effort. The Syrian Government is aware of the al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) network in Syria and occasionally detains AQI facilitators and operatives, but it has not made consistent or committed efforts to eliminate the AQI sanctuary that exists within its borders. Both Iraq and Syria hope to improve their relationship, but neither side seems willing to take the first step to better diplomatic relations. Syria continues to focus on economic cooperation, while Iraq demands security cooperation as a prerequisite to reestablishing full diplomatic relations...."