Tuesday, September 16, 2008

"Overall, the Iranians seem to be moving right along," and clearly, the status quo plays into Iran's hands

The IAEA Iran Report (pdf.) here via WPR
".... Russian resistance to sanctions and Iran's stonewalling, it looks like things are going to be in status quo mode until at least this time next year. By then, the Bushehr reactor will be online, and Iran will have not only continued to improve its enrichment capacity, it will also have a not insignificant amount of enriched uranium at its disposal. Meaning its leverage at the negotiating table will be significantly increased....
...Unfortunately, all of this plays into the hands of advocates of a military strike which, while unlikely to destroy the Iranian program, could possibly postpone it until the new American and Iranian administrations are in office. Obviously an airstrike would strengthen the hand of Iranian hardliners and pollute the negotiating atmosphere. But the logic of "stopping the clock" as opposed to letting the Iranians run it out, will probably gain strength now. .."

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